Russia is making gains against Ukraine after Donald Trump’s ban on sharing intelligence with Ukraine, experts have warned, as Vladimir Putin aims to “inflict maximum damage”. The US President suspended intelligence sharing on March 5, but there “continue to be conflicting reports about the details”, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes. The “temporal correlation” between the move and the start of Russia’s “collapse” of Ukraine’s foothold on Russian territory is however “noteworthy”, it adds.
It is understood that Putin’s forces “intensified offensive operations to expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast” on March 6 and 7. Now, Russian troops are “collapsing” the northern part of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast after several days of “intensified” activity. A reported Ukrainian military intelligence affiliated source started reporting more rapid Russian advances in Kursk Oblast on March 5. The ISW also cites a Ukrainian government source, who stated in a March 8 Timearticle that the intelligence sharing ban has affected Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast the most.
“The Russian military has not previously prioritised the effort to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast over making further advances in eastern Ukraine despite concentrating a sufficient force grouping to do so in late 2024,” the ISW writes.
“A direct link between the suspension of US intelligence sharing and the start of the collapse of Ukraine’s salient in Kursk Oblast is unclear, although Kremlin officials have recently announced their intention to take advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing to ‘inflict maximum damage’ to Ukrainian forces ‘on the ground’ during the limited time frame before the possible future resumption of US intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine.”
It added that reports suggest Russians have been advancing with support from North Korean troops.
“The suspension of US support to Ukrainian F-16 radar jammers will likely hamper Ukraine’s ability to continue to use the aircraft to defend against Russian strikes into Ukraine’s rear,” thw ISW also detailed.
“Ukrainian officials indicated in December 2024 that Ukrainian forces had been able to gain an artillery advantage of 1.5 to one or three-to-one in some areas of the front, and Russia’s current artillery advantage over Ukraine will likely continue to grow as Ukraine’s stockpiles of US ammunition decrease further following the US suspension of military aid.”
Mr Trump said on Sunday that the US had “just about” ended the suspension of intelligence sharing, and that he expects good results from talks with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia this week.
When asked if he would consider ending the suspension, he said: “We just about have. We just about have.”