There have been highs and lows for Everton this season.
The Toffees, at times, have looked like a genuine threat to gatecrash the top six, but they’ve also fallen flat too often, which has kept them in the middle of the table as we head towards the top of the stretch.
After years of turmoil, Everton will take an unfussy season that features no relegation drama, but it does feel like the club has another gear to it. Last weekend’s win over Aston Villa showed that.
Can Everton build off that result against Leeds on Monday?
Everton vs. Leeds odds, prediction
Leeds is only five points clear of the relegation zone, but the Peacocks boast a statistical profile that suggests they’re better than their record. That’s especially true on the defensive side of the ball.
Leeds has conceded 37 goals through 22 matches this campaign (16th in the Premier League), but according to Understat’s expected goals data, the Peacocks are one of the best defensive teams in England. Leeds’ 30.9 xGA is the sixth-best mark in the circuit, trailing Arsenal, Newcastle, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Liverpool. Not bad company to keep.
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The opposite is true of Everton. The Toffees are 10th in the Premier League in expected goals against (33.8), but they’re third in the Premier League in goals conceded (25). Everton is always a good bet to outpace its defensive metrics thanks to all-world goalkeeper Jordan Pickford, but the Toffees could certainly fall victim to negative regression defensively.
Neither one of these teams boasts terrific offensive numbers, but it’s Everton that feels in a more dire situation in that department.
Jack Grealish is hurt, while Iliman Ndiaye and Idrisse Gana Gueye just returned from an emotional triumph at the African Cup of Nations. Charly Alcaraz and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall are also doubtful to feature.
Leeds has a much more manageable injury list, and former Everton striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin should be the most threatening offensive force on the pitch on Monday.
This should be a low-event match, but the value is on Leeds to nick a win against a depleted Everton side on Monday.
The Play: Leeds +195 (DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
