The only first-round series of the Stanley Cup Playoffs that’s gone the distance is here for good reason.
The Canadiens and Lightning will clash in Game 7 on Sunday after a 1-0 overtime thriller, sealed by Tampa Bay grinder Gage Goncalves, who punched plane tickets back to Tampa.
This series has been microscopically close: all six games have been decided by one goal (four of which in overtime) and the Under has cashed five times.
With some veteran edge, the Lightning are -155 moneyline favorites at bet365 Sportsbook, with the goal total unsurprisingly set down at 5.5.
Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction, best bet
We’re looking at structurally low-event hockey because of evenly matched systems. Instead of clean carries into the zone, we’re seeing lots of forced dump-ins as both sides are mirroring one another by stacking the blue line.
There’s no time and space out there and we’re seeing it affect star players. Montreal leading-goal scorer Cole Caufield has potted one lonely goal, which was on the power play, while point-leader Nick Suzuki is scoreless.
Nikita Kucherov, who finished the regular season with the league’s second-most points at 130, has scored only once.
In turn, both clubs have tallied 14 total goals apiece and there has only been one two-goal lead at any point in the series — a 2-0 Montreal lead in Game 4 that was squandered.
We can’t look at 5-on-5 play and discover any palpable edge, either. Goals at 5-on-5 are also even at nine apiece while Tampa holds a razor-thin edge in expected goals for at 10.7 to 10.1, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Aside from defensive execution, goaltending has been paramount. While there have been more 50/50 retrievals than skill-driven attacks, it’s still not as though Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jakub Dobeš have had an easy workload. Vasilevskiy has turned aside 24 of 29 high-danger chances, compared to Dobeš, who has stopped 18 of 21.
Vasilevskiy, hot off a 30-save shutout, is no stranger to Game 7s. In four career starts, he’s polished a 1.51 goals-against average and .945 save percentage.
The whole series has come down to a bounce, so let’s not expect that trend to change in the final stage.
The play: Under 5.5 (-145, bet365)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
