Briefings for Britain this week calculated that if Reform UK was to replicate its May 1 local election results at a general election then it would decimate the Tories and reduce Labour to the same size as the Liberal Democrats. This comes with a major warning of course. Local election results tend to focus on local issues, while many areas where votes were not held were Labour controlled. Therefore Reform’s 32% support against 19% for Labour and 18% for the Tories needs to be treated with great caution.
Moreover, elections were not held in Reform-sceptic Scotland. That being said, nor were polls held in Wales – where Nigel Farage’s party is growing in support – while Scotland is a part of the UK clearly warming up to Reform. That all said, Briefings for Britain calculated that – if (a big if) the uniform swing at the local elections took place at the next general election – Reform would win 348 seats out of 650 in the House of Commons, comfortably forming a majority government.
By contrast Labour would crash from 411 seats to 91, only slightly ahead of the Lib Dems on 89. The Conservatives would suffer a second disaster following the 2024 wipeout, winning only 35 seats, 19 of which would be gains from Labour.
By this calculation, both Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and possible successor Robert Jenrick would be gone. This comes as speculation mounts that Badenoch will be ousted soon.
So desperate might the Tories become that rumours continue of a comeback for former PM and London Mayor Boris Johnson.
Now, of course, the next general election is slated for 2029. So much can happen between now and then, from another pandemic to a global war, both of which could increase support for Labour since – in times of crisis – there is often an incumbency advantage.
Furthermore, Reform UK will be scrutinised more than ever as the party takes over new councils.
From purely a party of protest, at local level anyway Reform will now be a party of government and must start to deliver the goods.
Farage knows risks of infighting remain while the party’s newfound professionalism must guard against professional embarrassment to the brand.
Still, the direction of travel – on current trends anyway – seems crystal clear. Even less generous analysts than this currently have Reform as the largest party in Parliament, potentially forming a coalition government with the Tories and with Nigel Farage as PM.
That could see a Canada-style takeover of the Conservatives as Reform swallows up the party of Churchill and Thatcher.
As Tory woes grow and weariness increases with the Labour government – who frankly won big last July simply thanks to profound frustration with 14 years of the Conservatives – Reform’s star continues to rise, with a new MP, council takeovers and mayoral gains.
Can the momentum be maintained? Only time will tell. But with 230,000 members, money coming in, and election wins, Reform UK is clearly remaking British politics and sending alarm bells ringing in Tory HQ.