Nigel Farage has warned Reform UK will struggle to pull off a surprise win in a crucial byelection this year. Farage is preparing to a present a show on the vote for the first time tonight instead of a candidate or party leader participating in the contest.
But the former UKIP and Brexit Party leader has a particular expert insight into why his Reform UK party will not prevail in the early hours of the morning in Wellingborough or Kingswood.
The party has fought a particularly high profile campaign in Wellingborough with deputy leader Ben Habib making headlines and turning the contest into “a referendum on the Sunak government”.
There are still hopes that he could beat Tory candidate Helen Harrison into second place and may even win the contest with Labour going into freefall this week over antisemitism and having to ditch its candidate in Rochdale.
But Mr Farage has issued a note of caution as he prepares to be part of GB News’ first all night by-election special – the only channel which will give the contests non-stop coverage.
Mr Farage, a veteran of many by-elections, told Express.co.uk: “Ben [Habib] has fought a very good campaign and made a lot of headlines but it is very difficult to win without a ground campaign.
“It takes time to get a ground campaign. We just about got there in 2014 with UKIP after years. But it is very hard to win without one. The Tories and Labour have that so it gives them a big advantage.”
By ground campaign Mr Farage means an army of volunteers going around canvassing, getting voting data and, crucially, on voting day knocking doors and getting identified voters to the polling stations.
The need for a ground campaign is even more important in low turnouts where every vote can count.
It also means that parties with a ground campaign also have a huge advantage in being able to harvest postal votes. This prevents the Brexit Party (now Reform) winning the Peterborough by-election in 2019 when Labour controversially amassed thousands of postal votes.
Mr Habib told Express.co.uk: “There is no doubt we have won the air war in this campaign. The Tories have been completely invisible.
“But now it is down to the ground war and really whether Labour can get their vote out and get enough angry Tory voters to switch to them. We believe a number will switch to us and we will now have to see what happens.”
Despite a terrible week where they have ditched their main economic policy and descended into civil war over anti-Semitism again, Labour are the hot favourites to win the two Tory safe seats.
Conservative sources have told Express.co.uk that they believe they could be making a fight of it in the Kingswood by-election n Gloucestershire where Labour’s candidate Damien Egan has been roundly mocked as a “Lewisham Labour Luvvie” who tried to change his accent to a west country one to give the impression he is local.
In Wellingborough, a strong Brexit seat, Labour has picked Gen Kitchen, a Remainer who believes in open borders and no control on immigration.
The by-election in Wellingborough was called after fiormer Tory MP Peter Bone was subject to a recall petition after being suspended from Parliament. His partner Helen Harrison is now the Conservative candidate.
Kingswood was called after the resignation of former minister Chris Skidmore who objected to Rishi Sunak issuing new licences for oil and gas exploration.
Express.co.uk will be providing regular updates tonight on our live blog which you can find on the website.
