Nigel Farage has been warned he risks missing out on his best opportunity to become an MP. It comes as a former Downing Street pollster claimed Farage is more likely than ever to win a seat during the 2024 General Election.
The former UKIP leader is said to be mulling over his return to frontline politics after his finished in third place on ITV reality show I’m a Celebrity…Get Me Out Of Here!.
But JL Partners co-founder James Johnson, who previously ran polling under Theresa May, warned he should not stand with Reform, the party currently led by Richard Tice, which Farage founded.
Mr Johnson told GB News: “I do think it is probably the election where it’s most likely Farage could gain a seat because people are so exasperated.
“That’s not to say that I think it’s likely but it is relative to the previous elections. The national message really matters when it comes to general elections. It’s about who you want to be leader. It’s about who you want in No10.
“And that obviously makes it much harder if a leader doesn’t have that profile nationally. Maybe Tice can build it, maybe there are debates that help him. But he’s not a natural firebrand that voters would get behind, at least not at the moment.”
So far the closest Farage has come to being elected was in 2015 when he fell short by 2,815 votes.
Mr Johnson added that the UK’s first past the post system meant Farage was unlikely to succeed with Reform.
He said: “If I was Farage, I wouldn’t do it because even in favourable circumstances, where Reform could be polling at upwards to 20 percent, it would still be very hard to win a seat because of the nature of the electoral system.”
Both Tice and Farage have been pushing for the introduction of proportional representation.
