The next general election – slated for 2029 – could see Nigel Farage lead a Reform-Tory coalition. That is based on data from pollster More In Common, which has discovered Britain’s electoral system – long disadvantageous to parties like Reform UK – could now work to the latter’s advantage.
As the Reform vote gets concentrated, not least in coastal areas and the pro-Brexit ‘Red Wall’, More In Common found Reform would win 180 seats with just under 24 per cent of the vote. By contrast, at just over 24 per cent apiece, the Conservatives and Labour would be tied on 165 seats each, with the latter seeing its 2024 majority wiped out and the loss of many Cabinet members’ seats.
Reform has clearly read the room, realising its messaging does best among patriotic voters who still a role for government. Hence the push to save British Steel.
A gap has opened in British politics which goes beyond Thatcherism redux. Reform supporters want more than a rerun of Maggie’s greatest hits. Instead, they want more Singapore-style intervention in the economy alongside strict immigration and crime controls, and an end to ‘wokeism’.
While for now Farage and under-fire Tory chief Kemi Badenoch rule out any deal, can we believe in the event a coalition could govern and oust Labour that Reform and the Tories would not work together?
If so, a Canada-style Tory takeover by Reform looks all but inevitable with Farage at the helm.
The pressure is now on however for Reform to deliver. The Runcorn by election is Reform’s to lose while local elections are expected to go Nigel Farage’s way.
Polling makes for positive reading but the hype has got to be matched by results. All eyes now on May 1 as British politics and the UK’s electoral system begins to work in Reform’s favour.