Great for ratings — unfortunate for players.
This Stars vs. Wild series is a perfect case as to why the NHL playoff format is flawed, pitting two contending teams against each other sooner rather than later.
This is fast, physical, and tightly contested hockey where the last couple of games have felt as though it could swing on a single bounce.
The Stars clinched Game 3, 4-3, by way of a double-overtime power-play strike from Wyatt Johnston to go up 2-1 in the series.
Minnesota erased an early Dallas push with three unanswered goals from depth scorers, but this ultimately came down to special teams with four total power-play scores.
Dallas has had the edge in 5-on-5 play via shot-attempt differential over the last two games, though it’s only outshooting the Wild, 94-84, in the series.
The problem is it can’t stay out of the box.
Stars vs. Wild prediction, best bet
Minnesota, which finished with the league’s third-best power play, hasn’t taken enough advantage of that, going 3-for-15. It generated just seven shots on Jake Oettinger with 14 minutes of opportunity in Game 3.
Worse, the unit managed only one high-danger chance in that entire stretch.
A lot of that is just bad puck luck, though. Kirill Kaprizov hit a post, Matt Boldy hit a post and then the structure evaporated into perimeter passing and low-quality looks.
When Kaprizov or Quinn Hughes are holding pucks too long, Dallas’ penalty kill resets and closes lanes. The contrast is stark — Miro Heiskanen scored on a simple point shot, while Minnesota keeps searching for highlight plays that never materialize.
This comes down to simplifying zone entries and establishing immediate net-front traffic, which the Wild evidenced its ability to execute in the regular season with 3.6 high-danger shots per game.
Then, there’s Kaprizov himself. This series is tilted on whether he looks like a $17-million driver or a passenger. After a strong Game 1 where he notched three points, he has disappeared: Just one point in two games, and now only six shots total in the series.
He had only two shots in Game 3 despite seven power-play opportunities.
Dallas’ top stars in Johnston, Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen and Matt Duchene are consistently generating volume and pressure. With the risk of falling down 3-1 in the series, there is pressure on Kaprizov to be a puck-battle force Saturday, not a perimeter observer waiting for Mats Zuccarello-like chemistry to rescue him.
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The Wild have also been victims of momentum killers. They are leading the playoffs in shorthanded situations, with recurring stick infractions, delay-of-game penalties, and emotional lapses.
That is not indicative of a team that has made the playoffs in all but two seasons since 2013, having lost in the first round in seven of the past 10 seasons.
Despite the results, in the cage, Jesper Wallstadt is outplaying Oettinger on paper. Through the first three games of his playoff career, he has projected 0.7 goals saved above expected, while Oettinger is at minus-2.2.
His debut showed reliable composure with a 27-save performance, showing poise in key moments and limited shot volume.
Now that he’s been baptized with a double-overtime test, I’m willing to back the young Swede to help knot this neck-and-neck series.
THE PLAY: Wild (-135, bet365)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
