A new poll shows that one replacement leader for the Conservative Party would put it in a better position come the next General Election – and it’s none of the young hopefuls many analysts have predicted.
Boris Johnson emerged as clean ahead of the competition in terms of how voters – in particular, the key group of uncertain 2019 Conservative voters – may react if he became leader. However, the polls show that even if the Conservative Party did go down this shocking route, it would likely not be enough to save them from electoral oblivion.
Voters were asked if they were more likely to vote Tory if Kemi Badenoch, who has been cited by several rebels as a possible alternative, replaced Rishi Sunak in the top job. Just six percent of voters said they would be more likely in this scenario, while 13 percent said they would be less likely to vote Tory.
Meanwhile for Boris Johnson, 16 percent of voters would be more likely to back the party while making 22 percent less likely to vote Tory in the study commissioned for The Times.
Conservative party election strategist Isaac Levido has stated a path to victory could be laid out if they are able to win back about half of the voters who backed them in 2019 and are now uncertain.
As for this cohort, 35 percent were more likely to vote Conservative if Mr Johnson was back leading the party. Among the same voters, 20 percent said a Badenoch leadership would make them less likely to vote Conservative, compared with 12 percent who said it would make them more likely.
In this group, 63 percent said they have either definitely made up their minds, or have a “good idea” who they will support.
However, it may do little to sway those who have already become convinced of Sir Keir Starmer. Almost 90 percent of those who say they are going to support Labour said they are very unlikely to change allegiance.
It follows a poll carried out by Conservative rebels looking to boot out Mr Sunak by asking voters what they thought of a seemingly idealised Tory leader.
This asked voters whether they would rather Sir Keir Starmer, or a new Conservative leader who “successfully reduced NHS waiting times”, reduced legal migration, had a “much tougher approach on small boats” and introduced tax cuts.
Publishing the results, YouGov warned it had to be “interpreted with many caveats” after the results showed overall support for the fictionalised Tory leader.
One cabinet minister told The Times: “It’s a bit like asking my wife if she would leave me for someone with all the attributes of George Clooney”.
The anonymous group of donors who paid for the poll, named the Conservative Britain Alliance, is being monitored by the Electoral Commission out of concern that they may be breaching electoral law.
“We regularly monitor groups to determine whether they may need to register with the commission,” a spokesman said. “This group hasn’t registered with us and may not need to, but we will continue monitoring as part of our routine work in this area.”
