New LA mayoral race odds favor Karen Bass, as Spencer Pratt slides

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is getting a primary day boost from online bettors.

Bass had a commanding lead Tuesday morning on Polymarket’s Los Angeles mayoral election market, with traders giving the embattled incumbent a 67% chance of winning the race.

Reality TV star-turned-political wildcard Spencer Pratt trailed at 23%, while City Councilwoman Nithya Raman — who has been fighting to break through as Bass’ chief progressive challenger — sat at 13%.

More than $5.2 million had been traded on the market as of Tuesday morning, according to Polymarket.

Bass is seeking a second term while facing voter anger over homelessness, public safety, the city’s sky-high cost of living and her handling of last year’s wildfires, which erupted while she was overseas.

Pratt, a registered Republican and former star of “The Hills’ who lost his home in the Palisades Fire, has turned his outsider bid into a nationally watched challenge for City Hall, hammering Bass over wildfire recovery and the city’s homeless crisis.

Raman, meanwhile, has pitched herself as a progressive alternative to Bass, arguing the city needs a more aggressive approach to housing, homelessness and economic inequality.

But the Polymarket numbers suggest traders increasingly see Bass as the favorite to survive the blockbuster contest — even as recent polling has shown a much tighter race and a likely November runoff.

The prediction market does not forecast vote share. Instead its prices reflect what traders are willing to pay for contracts tied to each candidate’s chances of ultimately winning the election.

The betting-market surge comes as Californians head to the polls in the state’s top-two governor primary, where all candidates appear on the same ballot and the two highest vote-getters advance to the November general election if no candidate wins an outright majority.

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