When the NBA first instituted the NBA Play-In Tournament in 2020, it was done out of necessity.
The standings were in disarray because the pandemic abruptly interrupted the season, and there wasn’t an easier way to determine which teams should still be competing for a playoff spot in the bubble.
Six years later, it has become a staple of the NBA season, and the Heat have become the unofficial mascot of the play-in game. They have been in the tournament every season since 2023, when they made the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed, and last season they became the first 10th-place team to secure the No. 8 seed.
They will need to bring that signature brand of Heat culture to tonight’s clash with the Hornets, who have become the darlings of the NBA in the second half of the season. The Hornets are 5.5-point spread favorites with the game taking place in Charlotte.
Heat vs. Hornets prediction, best bet
LaMelo Ball has been here before, too. Twice actually.
In his rookie season, Ball and the Hornets made the play-in game as the No. 10 seed and were thoroughly stomped by the Pacers in a 27-point loss. The following season they suffered the same fate against the Hawks by 29 points.
The was a different Hornets team and to his credit Ball has been a different player this season under second-year head coach Charles Lee. Ball has refined his game this season and looks closer to a floor general than he did in past years when we would routinely toss up puzzling shots from near halfcourt.
It also helps that he’s playing with one of the best shooters on the planet in Kon Knueppel and one of the league’s budding wing players in Brandon Miller. That trio, plus center Moussa Diabate and Miles Bridges have a plus-26.4 Net Rating, which is by far the best of any five-man unit that has played significant minutes together.
But in the postseason, experience is much more important than it is in the regular season. As good as the Hornets have been, only two of their starters — Ball and Bridges — have ever been in an NBA game with actual stakes.
That will be a factor tonight against a Heat team that has been here and done this more times than it can count and is in the same division as the Hornets. The Heat actually won the season series between the two teams and when they are fully healthy, which has been rare this season, they can go toe-to-toe with this scrappy Hornets team.
The Hornets should be the favorites here, but I’m not expecting them to dominate this game start to finish. I think they will need time to adjust, especially against a seasoned coach like Erik Spoelstra who is great at extracting the best from his players in pressure situations.
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The Heat won’t be afraid of this Hornets team and I think that will serve them in the first half where they are one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA. They average 61.7 points per game in the first half, second most in the NBA, and outscore teams by a modest margin of 2.3 points.
Even if they don’t have a lead at halftime, I think the Heat have enough in the tank to keep this close and cover the 3.5-point first half spread.
The Pick: Heat +3.5 1H (-110, FanDuel)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.