Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may want more definitive assurances of support from the NATO gathering wrapping up Wednesday in Lithuania, but he can’t be too upset with what he got, experts say.
In the hours leading up to a communique released by the alliance Tuesday, a seemingly disgruntled Zelenskyy said NATO’s unwillingness to provide a timeframe for membership − or even for a formal invitation to join − was “unprecedented and absurd.”
He didn’t get the timelines, but the communique did reflect strong support for Ukraine in its brutal war against Russia. And for Ukraine membership when the war is over. On Wednesday, Zelenskyy expressed gratitude while adding that a membership invitation would be “optimum.”
Mary Kate Schneider, director of global studies at Loyola University Maryland, says it’s not surprising that Zelenskyy was frustrated by the communique. But she said a NATO offer of admission now would limit Ukraine’s incentive to strengthen its democratic institutions, an area in which “the country has much work to do.” Institutional reforms would stall, she said.
She added that Russia would have no reason to enter into negotiations to end the war with a settlement and might intensify its offensives, causing “as much pain and destruction as possible.”
“As long as NATO membership remains attractive to Ukraine, NATO maintains the upper hand in both its relationship with Ukraine and its dealings with Russia,” Schneider told USA TODAY.
Zev Faintuch, senior intelligence analyst at the international security firm Global Guardian, said that while timelines might work well in other areas of policy, NATO’s larger powers needed to ensure “their hands don’t get tied behind their backs.” The U.S., Germany, and others needed the ability to adjust course as the global landscape changes, he said.
“At least for now, this is an attritional war,” Faintuch told USA TODAY. “Ukraine needs continued NATO support to continue fighting. And NATO is cementing its support without drastically escalating the conflict.”
Sean McFate, a professor at Syracuse University and senior fellow at the nonpartisan Atlantic Council think tank, thinks Zelenskyy is in trouble. McFate, author of “The New Rules of War: How America Can Win — Against Russia, China, and Other Threats,” said Zelenskyy kept pushing NATO countries for increasingly sophisticated weapons on the promise that Ukraine would have a decisive spring offensive.
“When the offensive happened, it was summer and failing, McFate said. “NATO is not impressed, and he’s lost a lot of political capital.” He described Zelenskyy’s demands as “poor strategic judgment.”
The White House said Wednesday that Ukraine still needs to make reforms to meet NATO standards. But National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told ABC’s Good Morning America that all 31 alliance members agree that Ukraine’s future is in NATO.
“The real question is just how we work down the pathway to get them in,” Sullivan said. “We’re not just going to sit around. We’re going to provide Ukraine with the weapons and military assistance it needs to defend its territory against Russia and to deter future aggression from Russia.”
Zelenskyy’s anger over ‘absurd’ lack ofZelenskyy’s anger over ‘absurd’ lack of timeline jars NATO summit: Live Ukraine updates
Developments Wednesday:
∎Russia is “bullying” Ukraine and believes that it can still achieve some of its goals by military means, leaving little room for negotiations, Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told Radio Svoboda. Hence, “so far,the path to victory is purely military,” Kuleba said.
∎Zelenskyy defended his country’s use of cluster munitions, saying “we are defending ourselves.”
Russia counters NATO summit with drone assault
A series of Russian drone strikes conducted across Ukraine Tuesday was likely a response to the NATO summit, a Washington-based think tank says.
Ukrainian forces, claiming to shoot down 26 of the 28 drones, said Russia appeared to be targeting a crucial grain terminal in Odesa. The terminal has been the outlet for Ukraine grain shipments under terms of a deal brokered by Turkey and the U.N.
The Institute for the Study of War says Russia may be threatening the Black Sea grain deal to send a message the deal’s original broker, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that his recent statement of support for Ukraine’s NATO membership “is not appreciated” by the Kremlin.
Zelenskyy defends use of cluster bombsZelenskyy defends use of cluster bombs, pushes for NATO membership, ahead of Biden meeting
