There is a strategy involved with finding betting value for the Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the MVP of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
A simple way to begin your handicap of this market is with a simple if-then statement. In this case, the “if” would be about who you think is going to, or at least has a chance to, win the Stanley Cup. The “then” would focus on the Conn Smythe.
An example: If I believe that the Buffalo Sabres have a good chance to win the Stanley Cup, then who would be the likeliest Sabre to play a starring role to lead them to the promised land?
For some teams, the answer is correlated. If the Boston Bruins win the Stanley Cup, it’s hard to imagine that Jeremy Swayman isn’t the MVP. It’s a similar situation for the Penguins and Sidney Crosby. If you want to bet Pittsburgh to win it all at 25/1, you may want to consider the 45/1 on Crosby to win the Conn Smythe instead.
For other teams, it’s more complicated.
Take the Colorado Avalanche, the favorites to lift Lord Stanley ahead of Round 1, for example.
Nathan MacKinnon is the best player on the Avs, so it’s no shocker to see him as the favorite to win the Conn Smythe. But just because MacKinnon has been tagged as the most likely winner of the award by the oddsmakers doesn’t mean he’s a good bet to win it. In fact, he may not even be the best value on his own team.
MacKinnon is surrounded by elite players, like Cale Makar and Martin Necas, both of whom are listed among the six favorites to win the Conn Smythe. That right there tells you that MacKinnon’s path to winning this award is more complicated than his short odds would imply.
It’s a similar scenario for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Nikita Kucherov is behind MacKinnon at 10/1, but he’s got plenty of competition on his own team with Andrei Vasilevskiy (18/1), Jake Guentzel (35/1), and Brayden Point (60/1).
As the playoffs progress, the landscape will change, and so will this equation, but for now, before the puck is dropped, we’ll use this simple exercise to get our betting card started.
2026 Conn Smythe Trophy odds
- Nathan MacKinnon +650
- Nikita Kucherov 10/1
- Cale Makar 12/1
- Connor McDavid 14/1
- Andrei Vasilevskiy 18/1
- Martin Necas 20/1
- Seth Jarvis 20/1
- Sebastian Aho 22/1
- Jack Eichel 28/1
- Andrei Svechnikov 30/1
Odds via bet365 Sportsbook.
2026 Conn Smythe Award picks, best bets
Linus Ullmark, Ottawa Senators (50/1, bet365)
The Senators are the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, but don’t let that fool you. This team is a threat to make a run.
Ottawa posted some of the best 5-on-5 numbers all season, but it wasn’t until the goaltending turned around that the Sens made their surge.
Linus Ullmark’s leave of absence put the Senators in a tight spot, but he stabilized the team upon his return, and he will need to continue that if Ottawa is going to get through the Eastern Conference.
The Sens have plenty of star power with Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, and Jake Sanderson, but Ullmark will be the difference between an early exit and a dark-horse run.
Quinn Hughes, Minnesota Wild (55/1, DraftKings)
The Minnesota Wild have the toughest road of any team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They’ll face the Dallas Stars in Round 1 and, very likely, the Colorado Avalanche in Round 2. Those are two of the top three teams in the overall standings from this season.
But Minnesota was no slouch itself, finishing seventh overall, and injuries in Dallas could open the door for the Wild to get into the second round.
And if the Wild are to get through Dallas and beyond, defenseman Quinn Hughes will need to be the straw that stirs the drink.
The U.S. Olympian played north of 27 minutes a night for the Wild in the 48 contests he played after being traded from Vancouver, and he clipped at better than a point per game in that span.
If he brings that form into the postseason and the Wild overcome this gauntlet, he’ll be on every ballot.
Betting on the NHL?
Brandon Hagel, Tampa Bay Lightning (75/1, bet365)
The Lightning are the favorites to win the Eastern Conference, and they’ve got a plethora of game-breakers who have a chance to win the Conn Smythe if they win their third Stanley Cup since 2020.
That said, Brandon Hagel is flying under the radar.
The all-action winger has been a rock in Tampa Bay’s top six for four-plus seasons, and he is coming off another 30-goal campaign that also saw him average over a point per contest.
Additionally, Hagel’s game is built for the playoffs. He’s a menace around the goal, and he’s got a natural gift for making an impact on a game even when he’s held off the scoresheet.
He’s got some serious competition on his own roster, but this is a great price on a player whose profile is quite similar to Sam Bennett’s, the current holder of the Conn Smythe.
Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers (200/1, DraftKings)
It may seem like a fool’s errand to bet anybody but Connor McDavid on the Oilers, especially with Leon Draisaitl battling an injury, but Bouchard is coming off a monster season on the blueline in Edmonton and this price is outrageous.
The 26-year-old led all defenseman with 92 points, 11 more than any other rearguard, and he logged just about 24.5 minutes of ice-time per game.
Bouchard’s defensive game is always under scrutiny, but if he tidies things up in the postseason and brings his usual offensive output, he’ll be in the running if the Oilers get back to the Stanley Cup Final for the third year on the spin.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.