Tropical diseases such as the horrifying “bone-breaker” dengue fever could become endemic in Britain due to climate change, scientists will warn today.
A report by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) paints a stark picture of a future in which heat and cold-related deaths soar and new mosquito species invade our shores carrying deadly viruses.
The Asian Tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus – all of which cause debilitating fever, body aches and joint pain.
Dengue has been dubbed the “break-bone” fever due to the agonising pain it can trigger.
In a plausible worst-case scenario where temperatures rise by over 4C, the report predicts the species could become established in most of England by the 2040s and 2050s.
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London could then see regular transmission of dengue fever by 2060, it was said.
Dr Jolyon Medlock, head of medical entomology at the UKHSA, said other European countries had already seen these mosquitoes arrive via imported goods.
He said: “Look at what’s happening in France at the moment. There have been a small number of cases each year of dengue in the Mediterranean region.
“But this year, we’ve seen just over 100 cases of dengue in parts of Italy and in parts of France.
“A Mediterranean climate is very much where we might be in the future, in 30 or 40 years’ time.”
Professor Dame Jenny Harries, UKHSA chief executive, said the report was intended to help policymakers and health chiefs prepare for the possible impacts of climate change.
The agency is already considering what vaccines may be needed and working to ensure the UK can access them.
Dame Jenny added: “Things that, when I trained many years ago, were called tropical diseases will actually become national domestic diseases so GP training needs to change.”
Other major risks include increased flooding and periods of extreme hot and cold weather. A 4C rise in average temperatures could see the number of people exposed to flooding in the UK more than double by 2080.
Supplies of fruit and vegetables imported from countries most vulnerable to the impact of climate change could also become volatile.
The UK recorded temperatures above 40C for the first time last summer, resulting in almost 3,000 excess deaths.
The analysis found that temperatures were likely to continue rising until at least the middle of this century, regardless of decarbonisation efforts.
By that time, adults who are of working age now will be aged over 65 – a group particularly at risk during periods of extreme weather.
Heat-related deaths could more than double by the 2030s and increase by over 1,000 percent by 2070, the report found.
Meanwhile, extreme cold-related deaths are also projected to rise before declining by the middle of the century.
Heat-related mortality linked to climate change has been estimated to cost the NHS £6.8 billion per year, and experts warned this could rise to £14.7 billion annually in the 2050s.
Dame Jenny said the report was not “all doom and gloom” and many of the anticipated health effects were avoidable if the UK cuts greenhouse gas emissions and takes action to mitigate threats.
Examples include improving flood defences and housing design, stepping up efforts to protect those most at risk from extreme weather, and measures to detect mosquitoes at ports.
Dame Jenny added: “We don’t want people to think we’re all going to hell in a handcart. What we actually want to do is find the opportunities that we can all intervene and do something positive.
“This is a tool to assist the health service, local authorities and national government to consider those elements in their planning.”
Dr Lea Berrang Ford, head of the UKHSA’s Centre for Climate and Health Security, said: “There are significant opportunities for win-win solutions that can combat climate change and improve health.
“The health decisions we make today will determine the severity and extent of climate impacts inherited by today’s youth and their children.”
