Waking up to a dusting of snow on Christmas morning is the picture-perfect moment we all dream of, but sadly in the UK it doesn’t happen all that often.
Households are much more accustomed to opening the curtains on Christmas Day to be greeted by showers of rain or blustery winds, and actually seeing snow has become much more rare.
For the Met Office to declare a ‘white Christmas’, a single snowflake has to be observed falling on the 24 hours of December 25, by either an official Met Office observer or by a Met Office automated weather station.
But a white Christmas does look to be on the cards for some lucky parts of the country this year as snow is forecast over the festive period. The Met Office has issued its long-range forecast including Christmas Day and given its verdict on the part of the UK most likely to wake up to snow on December 25.
If you’re desperate to see snow then Met Office meteorologist Simon Partridge recommends heading to the Scottish mountains, as this is the most likely place for snowfall in the UK this Christmas. The north of the country is also expected to see snow during Christmas week, as temperatures are expected to plummet.
In its forecast from December 19 to 28, the Met Office says: “Showers are likely to become wintry over high ground in the north. Beyond this, it will remain changeable through the rest of the period. The wettest and windiest conditions will probably be in the north, with spells of heavy rain at times as low pressure systems pass by.
“Further south, whilst some unsettled weather is likely at times, it will probably be drier overall with a greater influence of high pressure. Temperatures will likely vary around average with both some milder and colder interludes at times.
“Snow will most likely be restricted to high ground, although could temporarily fall at lower levels in the north during any colder interludes.”
The run up to December 25 is forecast to be an unsettled mix of heavy rain and strong winds, particularly across northern and western parts of the UK.
While some snow is forecast on higher ground in the north during Christmas week, the Met Office says it is more probable for snow to fall in January and February than in December. Snow only settles on the ground for an average of three days in December, compared to 3.3 in January and 3.4 in February.
The national forecaster added that it will have a much clearer picture as to whether big flurries will fall on Christmas Day a week before, because its five-day forecasts are the most detailed and accurate.
The Met Office said: “Forecasting impactful snow is famously tricky in the UK. There are a number of factors that our expert meteorologists look for and numerous competing elements that all have to be exact for snow to actually fall.
“Sometimes, just a fraction of a degree in temperature can make the difference between the chance to build a beautifully formed snowman, and the joys of a sleety slushy day. That’s why forecasting snow weeks in advance is extremely tricky.”