One of the fun parts of March Madness is trying to identify which teams will be trendy, and then deciding if the bandwagon is onto something or if it’s actually providing value going the other way.
Seventh-seeded UCLA seems to be gaining some momentum as a potential dark horse to go on a run in the East Region, but to make good on that hype, the Bruins will need to start by swatting aside No. 10 UCF in Philadelphia on Friday evening.
The oddsmakers like their chances of doing just that, as Mick Cronin’s Bruins are 5.5-point favorites, which is the biggest gap in the four 7-10 matchups in the bracket.
UCLA vs. UCF odds, prediction
The reason for the UCLA bandwagon filling up is pretty easy to see: The Bruins were terrific down the stretch.
After getting blown out in back-to-back games against Michigan and Michigan State, the Bruins went on a heater, winning six of seven before falling to Purdue in the Big Ten semifinals.
That stretch saw UCLA collect wins over Illinois, Nebraska and Michigan State, all of whom are higher seeds than the Bruins in the Big Dance.
UCF’s current form is on the other end of the spectrum.
The Knights limp into the tournament as losers of four of their last five and seven of their last 11.
The schedule they faced was a brute, but it’s not like they’ll be taking on a shrinking violet on Friday night at the Wells Fargo Center.
What’s more is that UCF’s glaring weakness, a defense that sits outside of KenPom’s top 100, matches up with the strength of UCLA.
The Bruins are a terrific offensive outfit, ranking 22nd in the country per KenPom.
Betting on College Basketball?
Sometimes there are reasons to be dubious of trendy teams early in the tournament, but other times it’s logical.
We’ll back the Bruins to get the job done with ease Friday.
The Play: UCLA -5.5 (-110, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.