The ugly scenes at the White House on Friday were not what anyone who cares passionately about the future of Ukraine wanted to see. And the subsequent war of words is unhelpful for a beleaguered eastern European nation trying to end a much more real war with its powerful Russian neighbour. Fortunately, President Volodymyr Zelensky enjoyed a much warmer reception from Sir Keir Starmer, King Charles and European leaders when he visited London this weekend.
Yet, naturally, it will be the bruising encounter at the Oval Office that remains in the public’s memory for far longer. The crucial question now is: where do we go from here? I have just returned from my eleventh visit to Ukraine since the start of its all-out war more than three years ago and my respect for the resilience of its people has no limits. Sadly, but unsurprisingly, Ukraine looks to be losing this war as it runs short of men, as well as arms.
Yet I remain optimistic that through a mixture of courage, ingenuity and grim determination, Ukraine will be able to hold off its aggressor for long enough to secure a “fair” peace deal: one which will give it the protection it needs to agree a ceasefire. This is a time when calm heads are needed if progress is to be made. Significantly, even President Donald Trump, for all his bluster after effectively kicking the Ukrainian leader down the steps of the White House, described their meeting as “meaningful” and did not rule out another get-together.
Looking on the bright side, the fact both the US and Ukraine want peace and that Russia needs peace is a good starting point. I say “needs” because the Russian economy is creaking with rampant inflation, soaring interest rates and stalling productivity. During my most recent visit to Ukraine, I met Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s astute head of defence intelligence. He made the stark prediction that in the middle of this year Russia’s economy will collapse.
Having spoken privately to numerous senior military and political figures in Ukraine last week, they are realistic enough to accept that a peace deal will not give them all they deserve: for example, they are unlikely – in the short term at least – to win back the near 20% of land illegally seized by Russia. Similarly, they are unlikely to see President Putin and his military leaders prosecuted as war criminals.
Ukraine’s leaders also reluctantly accept that their country is unlikely to receive reparations for the billions of pounds of damage done to their country. Nor is Ukraine likely to be given NATO membership any time soon.
However, Ukraine does want and need President Trump to persuade his “friend” Putin to make a public statement acknowledging Ukraine’s future as an independent, sovereign country. From that point onwards, a peace agreement can follow because such a statement would make it easier for the West, even the US if it changes its tune, to provide meaningful “security guarantees”. In simple terms, Ukraine needs to know that if Russia attacks again, it will get an immediate and significant level of protection from its allies.
As President Zelensky made it clear to President Trump, Russia has proved to be an untrustworthy neighbour. “Just [a] ceasefire will never work,” he said. I am repeatedly told by my friends in Ukraine a bad deal, which leaves them vulnerable to another attack, is worse than no ceasefire. I share that view.
Yet, President Trump’s anti-European stand in recent weeks has undoubtedly achieved some of its aims. Only last week our Prime Minister set out his commitment to increase spending on defence to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027. Other European nations now accept they have to pull their weight too, especially if, as seems likely, they cannot rely on the US for their future protection.
What European leaders need to come up with now is a pathway for the future that enables their respective nations to survive for generations to come.
As for President Trump, I strongly suspect he still believes he can not only negotiate a lasting ceasefire but will eventually get the honour his formidable ego so desperately wants: the Nobel Peace Prize. In this crazy world that we all now live in, stranger things have happened.
- Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com Follow him on X/Facebook @LordAshcroft
