Two unbeaten Premier League sides will clash on Monday afternoon at Elland Road in Yorkshire.
Leeds United is a slight +135 favorite on the three-way moneyline against Newcastle United (+195). The draw is +255 for this encounter between a pair of clubs with the same record through three matches: one win, two draws, and no losses.
While their records are identical, the way these two teams have played to start the season has differed quite a bit.
Leeds vs. Newcastle odds, pick
Daniel Farke’s Leeds United have navigated a pretty tricky opening stretch of schedule. The Peacocks defeated Nottingham Forest on the road in their opener, and then held Brentford and Brighton to 1-1 draws.
The performance against Brighton was especially noteworthy, as the Seagulls have scored a league-best 13 goals through four matches.
Farke would love for Leeds to find more goals and create more scoring opportunities, but their defensive form has them trending in the right direction. The Peacocks have conceded just two goals this season, and they’re conceding just 1.4 xG per match despite facing one of the best attacks in England.
Newcastle has found life easier in their opponents’ third to start, but the Magpies are leaking scoring chances. According to FootyStats, Newcastle is conceding the most expected goals per contest in the Premier League to start the season.
There was a ton of turnover at St. James’ Park this offseason. The club had to sell off some of its best players, leading to the exit of manager Eddie Howe, so getting through three matches without a defeat is an impressive feat for Matthias Jaissle’s side.
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However, they’ve achieved this start through smoke and mirrors, and it’s only a matter of time before they get found out.
A solid, in-form outfit like Leeds should be able to exploit that, especially at home.
The Play: Leeds moneyline (+135, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
