Sir Keir Starmer might be shamed into action by President-elect Donald Trump in a major test of ties between the returning Republican and the British PM.
Trump ally and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has warned the Trump team is hostile to the Labour government’s deal to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, albeit retaining the lease on Diego Garcia, the critical military base leased to the US.
Michael Waltz, who is expected to become Trump’s national security adviser, previously warned that China would “take advantage of the resulting vacuum” if the UK handed over sovereignty of the islands.
The China factor is key since Mauritius is an ally of Beijing’s and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could use this relationship to spy on Diego Garcia, or worse still, egg on Mauritius to tear up the deal and force the US out using Chinese muscle.
Other Trump picks – such as Marco Rubio for foreign affairs and Pete Hegseth for defence – are known to be hawkish on China as well. If Trump makes good on alleged promises to row back the commitment to Ukraine, this could free up US energy and resources to focus on Asia.
To be clear, China has a window of opportunity to move on Taiwan, the island democracy which sits right in the middle of the ‘first island chain’ of Western-allied states which currently blocks China’s military from projecting power into the Pacific.
Take Taiwan and China could force the US out of the region, with all the economic and military ramifications that would bring. The US is also committed to defending Japan and the Philippines – both within the chain and both hosting US troops – with both countries also having territorial disputes with the CCP.
Sir Keir and co cannot be entirely blamed for the Chagos deal, albeit the terms Labour have signed off on are disastrous for Britain, handing over the territory to a country which never controlled it, and with British taxpayers paying for the privilege.
Still, the Tories got the ball rolling, so both sides of the British political divide must take some blame for this dreadful deal.
The Chagos Islands giveaway might be the first major test of the Starmer-Trump relationship, assuming Washington forces Britain to tear up the deal since Diego Garcia ranks alongside Guam as super critical for US interests in Asia.
Would it not be massively ironic if Donald Trump actually preserved the integrity of a UK territory which British politicians had been happy to throw under the bus?
Frankly, the Chagos Islands giveaway could – if it went ahead – pave the way for other such deals. Is it not possible that Gibraltar’s sovereignty could also come under scrutiny as Labour attempts to cosey up with the EU?
The chances of that fall off a cliff however if the Chagos deal gets scuppered thanks to Trump. Not only is this a major test of relations between the re-elected President and the Labour PM, but could help shape UK-US ties for the next few years, super critical as these are given the risk of a war over Taiwan or in the South China Sea.
Trump might therefore be about to shame the Starmer government into one almighty U-turn.
