If you’re one of the many people who spent money on Mark Wahlberg Super Bowl attendance props at the prediction market, Kalshi, the vibrations are in fact not too good today.
Wahlberg was among the many celebrities listed on the “Who will attend the Big Game?” market on Kalshi and, according to ESPN’s David Purdum, the Boston native was the most popular choice among traders to show up.
But on Wednesday, three days after the Super Bowl, Kalshi settled the market as “no” and devastated any traders who had money on the other side.
The market had a volume of $39 million while it was live and Purdum reported that more than $24 million was traded on Wahlberg based in part on a rumor that spread on social media that he would be in attendance.
The “Yes” option peaked at 89 percent four days before the Super Bowl and was as high as 74 percent at 7:41 a.m. before it swiftly swung back in the other direction over the next eight hours before kickoff.
Wahlberg wasn’t the only celebrity who predictions market users were upset at due to extra obscure Super Bowl-related props, with anger stemming from the “Who will perform at the Big Game” market settling.
Cardi B was seen on stage singing and dancing during Bad Bunny’s halftime performance, but there was controversy over whether that qualified as performing.
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Kalshi suspended the the market and paid out both sides at fair value because the yes or no wasn’t easy enough to determine.
Wahlberg bettors weren’t so lucky.
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
