US President Donald Trump (Image: Getty)
A strike on Iran by Israel is edging closer — and the Trump administration is signalling it is prepared to support it, a former Israeli intelligence official has said. Avi Melamed, who served in intelligence roles with both the Israeli military and police, said the intensifying pace of Israeli military action and Washington’s increasingly aggressive posture was both a warning and a rehearsal.
He told Express.co.uk: “Israel’s massive strikes on the Yemeni port of Al Hudaydah and the Sana’a airport, carried out in response to the ongoing Houthi attacks on Israel, alongside today’s sharp and explicit warning to the Iranian regime, were likely coordinated with the Trump administration. These actions are intended to signal the Iranian regime that the Trump administration has moved to an ‘orange alert’ posture regarding the option of an Israeli strike on Iran.”
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Mr Melaned emphasised that while a direct strike was not imminent, the coordination between Israel and the United States — especially in the run-up to President Donald Trump’s planned Middle East visit — was likely intended to apply maximum pressure on Tehran to rein in the Houthis, reduce tensions, and show flexibility in its nuclear negotiations.
He explained: “The message is clear. It aims to increase pressure on the Iranian regime to rein in the Houthis, who are militarily supported by Iran, and to show greater flexibility in its negotiations with the Trump administration.”
President Trump himself appeared to lend weight to Mr Melamed’s interpretation, saying this week that “Israel is doing what it needs to do” in response to Houthi attacks, and that the United States “will continue to act as needed to defend freedom of navigation.”
He has stopped short of outlining red lines, but insiders believe the language used represents a clear warning to Tehran.
Despite reports that the Houthis may now be open to halting their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, Mr Melamed cautioned that this did not necessarily mean the threat had been neutralised.
Anti-Israel banners are put up in Iran’s capital, Tehran (Image: Getty)
He said: “The conclusion is that inflicting significant damage on the Houthis’ strategic assets has a cumulative deterrent effect. However, this is not a permanent deterrence, because ‘deterrence’ in the eyes of the Houthis is a tactical, temporary condition subject to changing circumstances.”
According to Mr Melamed, the regime in Tehran is operating from a position of growing vulnerability, with both external and internal threats mounting.
He explained: “The Iranian regime is at a significant point of weakness, stemming from a combination of growing unrest inside Iran due to economic, social, and environmental hardships; the weakening of the so-called Axis of Resistance — especially Iran’s loss of control in Syria; and the regime’s concern that the failure of nuclear talks with the US will lead to harsh sanctions from the Trump administration.”
He also highlighted a series of explosions at sensitive sites inside Iran, which he said had damaged the regime’s image of strength and invulnerability, both at home and abroad.
Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, Iran’s Supreme Leader (Image: Getty)
He said: “The accumulation of explosions at various sites in Iran, of civilian and/or military significance, is interpreted in Iran and the region as a reflection of the regime’s structural weakness — perceived as deeply corrupted, infiltrated by Israeli Mossad, vulnerable, and helpless.
“This perception damages the image of strength and deterrence that the Iranian regime seeks to project and, accordingly, poses an additional challenge to its rule.”
While the risk of all-out conflict remains low in the immediate term, Mr Melamed said both Israel and the United States were now preparing for the possibility that diplomacy could fail — and that the cost of inaction might ultimately be greater than the cost of military intervention.
The Trump administration has taken an increasingly hardline stance on Iran since returning to office, reimposing sanctions and scrapping previous diplomatic overtures.
The aftermath of Israeli raids on Yemen (Image: Getty)
Its policy has centred on weakening Iran’s regional networks, with a particular focus on the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria.
The recent raids on Houthi targets in Yemen are seen as part of a broader strategy to contain Iran’s influence and protect key shipping lanes in the Red Sea.
US forces have also stepped up naval and aerial patrols in the region, reinforcing their presence alongside Israeli operations.
While officials insist military action against Iran is not the preferred outcome, Washington has made clear it is prepared to act if its warnings are ignored.