Is Ohio a bellwether on abortion rights? Three takeaways after voters rejected a contentious measure

A win for Ohio Democrats this week could have implications for abortion rights advocates across the country.

Buckeye State voters rejected a measure late Tuesday that proposed tightening rules around adding amendments to the state constitution.

First introduced by Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Rep. Brian Stewart, this week’s vote amounted to a proxy war for a longer battle over abortion rights in the state. Ohio Republicans pushed for the measure to change the amendment process ahead of the state’s November election, when a constitutional amendment enshrining abortion rights will be on the ballot.

But the Ohio results could be a bellwether for the rest of the nation as abortion rights make their way onto the ballot in states across the country. Here’s how.

Abortion remains a key voter concern

After the Supreme Court last June overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark decision that provided a nationwide right to abortion, the issue was on the ballot in the midterm elections months later. Democratic candidates also appealed to voters’ concerns by making abortion a prominent campaign message.

And Ohio voters sent a signal to the rest of the country this week: Abortion could once again drive voters to the polls in 2024. In an off-year election, turnout Tuesday in Ohio was higher than expected as debates around the ballot measure garnered national attention.

Both sides of the debate in Ohio paid steeply to guarantee that attention. Groups such as Protect our Constitution and Protect Women Ohio spent millions in advertisements supporting the measure, while opponents, including the One Person One Vote coalition, shelled out millions in return.

Out-of-state contributions bolstered each campaign as abortion advocates and anti-abortion activists alike paid close attention to the Midwestern state.

Leaders outside Ohio also weighed in on the controversial measure.

“Today, Ohio voters rejected an effort by Republican lawmakers and special interests to change the state’s constitutional amendment process,” President Joe Biden said in a statement Tuesday night. “This measure was a blatant attempt to weaken voters’ voices and further erode the freedom of women to make their own health care decisions. Ohioans spoke loud and clear, and tonight democracy won.”

How abortion fights are playing out at the state level

State-level battles over abortion are expected to continue in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning the nationwide standard set by Roe v. Wade. More than 20 states have now banned or placed additional restrictions on abortion after the high court’s ruling.

California, Vermont and Michigan’s state constitutions guarantee reproductive rights after voters there approved amendments last November. The amendment in Ohio is likewise expected to pass. A recent USA TODAY Network/Suffolk University survey found that support outweighed opposition by 26% and crossed party lines.

Abortion opponents across the country eagerly waited to see the results of Ohio Republicans’ proposed limitations on constitutional amendments, particularly in the longtime battleground state. The Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America organization called it “a sad day in Ohio” when the attempt failed.

“Sadly, attacks on state constitutions are now the national playbook of the extreme pro-abortion Left,” the group wrote in a statement Tuesday. “So long as the Republicans and their supporters take the ostrich strategy and bury their heads in the sand, they will lose again and again.”

Ohio measure rejected by Republicans too

Progressive strongholds across Ohio resoundingly rejected the state measure on Tuesday. But they weren’t alone.

While Republican lawmakers backed the constitutional change, key GOP areas also opposed the measure on Tuesday. Nearly 58% of voters in suburban Delaware County north of Columbus rejected it, despite the county’s long history of supporting Republicans.

In early returns Tuesday night, support for the measure also fell short of former President Donald Trump’s showing during the 2020 election in swaths of the state.

But some GOP supporters of the push said they didn’t have enough time to educate voters about the issue before the election, vowing to boost those efforts in the future.

“I think it’s a question that was worth asking of the voters, not only because of the two issues that are on the ballot in November, but the six to 10 that are planned over the next couple of years,” State Senate President Matt Huffman said.