WASHINGTON—China has secretly persuaded cash-strapped Cuba to allow it to build an electronic eavesdropping and intelligence-gathering facility on the island in exchange for billions in foreign aid, according to a new report in the Wall Street Journal.
If true, the new outpost would mark a significant escalation in Beijing’s already aggressive geopolitical expansion efforts around the globe. It also would pose a potentially game-changing security threat to the United States given that it is less than 100 miles from Florida, analysts and former U.S. national security officials told USA TODAY.
Why a China base in Cuba would be significant
Cuba has been an intelligence-gathering flashpoint for more than half a century given its proximity to the U.S., including key military bases in the southeastern states. Back in 1962, President John F. Kennedy nearly went to war with the Soviet Union over its clandestine effort to put nuclear-tipped missiles and other military equipment on the Caribbean island.
The Journal, citing “U.S. officials familiar with highly classified intelligence,” said the two countries had reached an agreement in principle, and that the recent development has sparked alarm within the Biden administration, which regards Beijing as its most significant economic and military rival.
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What are the US and China saying?
White House spokesman John Kirby told the Journal that, “While I cannot speak to this specific report, we are well aware of—and have spoken many times to—the People’s Republic of China’s efforts to invest in infrastructure around the world that may have military purposes, including in this hemisphere.”
Asked about the report, Kirby told USA TODAY that it “is not accurate.” But he said he could not comment specifically on the broader question of whether China and Cuba have negotiated − or are negotiating − such an agreement.
“We have had real concerns about the China’s relationship with Cuba, and we have been concerned since day one of the Administration about China’s activities in our hemisphere and around the world,” Kirby said. “We are closely monitoring it and taking steps to counter it. We remain confident that we are able to meet all our security commitments at home and in the region.”
By Thursday afternoon, POLITICO offered a slightly different take on the story, reporting that China “was in direct conversations with Cuba to set up a base on the island,” suggesting that the deal had not been finalized.
Officials at the Chinese embassy in Washington, D.C., did not respond to a request for comment from USA TODAY.
But in an apparent dig at the United States, China’s ambassador to Cuba, Ma Hui, tweeted a reference to the Journal story and said, “The world knows very well who is the ‘eavesdropping’ empire.”
Why a Chinese spy hub in America’s backyard would matter
Such an eavesdropping outpost would allow China’s technologically sophisticated intelligence services − which are operated by its military − to vacuum up electronic communications at American military bases in the southeastern U.S. and to monitor U.S. ship traffic throughout the strategically important region, said Craig Singleton, a former U.S. diplomat and senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
China could collect intelligence from emails, phone calls, satellite transmissions and other communications, according to Singleton and other China analysts.
China would be intentionally provocative by basing a facility so close to the U.S. border, Singleton told USA TODAY. He said that, given its proximity, it “poses immediate operational and counterintelligence risks to the homeland.”
“In relatively short order, the Chinese could preposition sensitive radar collection gear that could collect on U.S. forces at Southern Command and other sensitive U.S. installations throughout the region,” Singleton said. “And it provides them a foothold for intelligence collection in the region that they currently lack.”
Worse than the Chinese spy balloon?
Michael Allen, a former China expert on the National Security Council and House Intelligence Committee, said that this kind of eavesdropping base in Cuba isn’t as direct an infringement of U.S. sovereignty as the Chinese spy balloon that traversed the U.S. collecting intelligence in early February.
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But in many respects, a Chinese intelligence collection platform in Cuba would be much worse, Allen told USA TODAY.
“This is a significant development that allows China to gain a foothold in the Western Hemisphere,” Allen said. This type of base, he said, “is infinitely more capable of intelligence collection. It’s permanent not transitory,” and it would throw an “electronic dragnet over a key region of the U.S.”
Douglas London, a retired CIA senior operations officer and Chief of Station who served for 34 years in foreign posts, suggested that China has been getting this type of intelligence all along, although more indirectly.
“Do we really think the Cubans weren’t already collecting this? And sharing with Russia and China?” London said in an interview. “The public nature is the only change and yes, it’s to make a statement, ‘You’re in our waters, now we’re in yours.’ “
What’s China’s end game?
The bigger picture is what worries former U.S. China hands and other analysts the most. They say that any effort to base an intelligence-collection platform in Cuba is part of a much broader strategic effort by Beijing to expand its influence around the world and project military power in areas once controlled by the U.S. and allies like Taiwan.
China has been looking for military bases in the Middle East and on the western and eastern side of the Atlantic Ocean, Allen said.
And Singleton said Chinese leader Xi Jinping has publicly committed to transforming China into a leading global military power. Establishing military and intelligence outposts in places like Cuba, he said, is a key component in Xi’s plan − even if he doesn’t say so publicly.
Beijing has denied any interest in establishing a basing foothold in the Western Hemisphere. But it also claimed that an outpost it established in Djibouti on the northeastern coast of Africa nearly a decade ago was a low-level logistics facility, Singleton said.
Today, he said, the sprawling base − just miles from Washington’s largest base in Africa − can house thousands of Chinese marines and possesses hardened underground facilities totaling over 27,000 square yards.
Bad for diplomacy?
News of the alleged new spy base comes amid growing tensions between the U.S. and Beijing. Recent encounters between their military ships and aircraft in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea has alarmed Washington. So did the spy balloon controversy. Other flashpoints, including U.S. accusations over China’s role in making the chemicals responsible for the U.S. fentanyl overdose crisis, haven’t helped the chilly relationship.
Even so, the Biden administration has tried to tamp down tensions. And there is talk that Secretary of State Antony Blinken could travel to Beijing later this year for diplomatic talks that the U.S. cancelled as a result of its Feb. 4 shootdown of the spy balloon off the South Carolina coast.
NBC reported Tuesday that Blinken “is expected to travel to China in the coming weeks for talks,” citing two U.S. officials.
The Biden administration also has attempted to improve relations with Cuba, but the new base could complicate both diplomatic efforts.
“It feels like the Cuban Missile Crisis for intelligence,” Allen said, “except we have fewer policy options to stop this.”
Contributing: Tom Vanden Brook
