Rishi Sunak is deploying a “high-stakes” strategy with his focus on cutting immigration which has the potential to blow up in his face, a top pollster has warned.
Chris Hopkins was speaking on the day Mr Sunak’s Rwanda Bill returned to the Commons, with a crunch vote scheduled for tomorrow and a Tory backbench rebellion apparently gaining traction.
Plans to send failed asylum seekers to the East African country have proven highly controversial, and the Prime Minister is walking a tightrope as he desperately tries to keep both the right and left of his party on board.
Any softening of the proposals will alienate the former, including deputy chairman Lee Anderson. However, if Mr Sunak complies with his demands to “beef up” the Bill, he risks alienating One Nation Tories such as former Attorney General Robert Buckland.
Failure to get his legislation through the House would be massively damaging for the Prime Minister with a general election almost certain to be called before the end of the year.
Mr Hopkins, director of Savanta, told Express.co.uk: “I think there’s a lot at stake for Rishi Sunak.
“His strategy of highlighting and tackling small boat crossings and decreasing immigration feels quite ‘high-risk, low-reward’, and so far all he’s succeeded in doing is making a rod for his own back with the electorate on an issue he’s struggled to fix, all while exposing divisions in his own party rather than Labour’s.”
The electorate was regularly being reminded of its concerns around immigration while being given a “front row seat” to a government which currently appeared unable to do anything about it, Mr Hopkins said.
He continued: “Ultimately Savanta’s research shows the public wants to see competence and delivery from the government on this issue.
“Getting this Bill through won’t necessarily reverse their feelings towards the government in this regard, certainly not until any planes have actually taken off, but not passing the Bill would be a complete catastrophe.
It comes as Filippo Grandi, United Nations high commissioner for refugees said that, even unamended, the Bill and recently signed treaty with Kigali would still violate global refugee law.
Under the Government’s plan, migrants who cross the English Channel on small boats could be sent on a one-way trip to Rwanda rather than being allowed to try to seek asylum in the UK.
The legislation and the treaty are intended to make the Government’s plan legally watertight following a Supreme Court ruling against it last year.
Mr Johnson, while no longer an MP, is still an influential voice in Tory circles – particularly with Mr Sunak’s critics.
He said: “This Bill must be as legally robust as possible – and the right course is to adopt the amendments.”
