After nearly 14 months of fighting a ceasefire has come into effect in Lebanon. Although technically an agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government, the reality is that it brings to a halt, for the time being anyway, to the war fought between the IDF and Hezbollah in that region.
The deal was announced on Tuesday (26 th ) evening by the USA, France, and Israel, with President Joe Biden saying he hoped it would be a “permanent cessation of hostilities”.
Under the terms of the agreement Israel will gradually withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon over a 60-day period, while Hezbollah will remove its fighters and weapons from south of the Litani River, thus conforming to United Nations Security Resolution 1701 which brought to an end the Israel-Lebanon war of 2006 but was ignored by Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s personnel will be replaced in that area by up to 5,000 soldiers from the Lebanese army, plus an enhanced UN presence from UNIFIL forces. Whether they will prove effective in maintaining the peace remains to be seen.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while welcoming the ceasefire, had a different take on it, saying that the end of the fighting in Lebanon would allow the IDF to focus on “the Iranian threat”. He did not provide further details but it sounds ominous.
Make no mistake, this ceasefire and its terms are tantamount to a Hezbollah defeat. It has abandoned several previously-held ceasefire negotiation positions, reflecting the degree to which IDF military operations have forced Hezbollah to abandon its war aims.
Hezbollah’s leaders have said repeatedly that it would not end its attacks without an Israeli ceasefire with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This agreement does not include an end to Israeli operations there.
While a necessary and welcome step in halting further escalation in Lebanon, the arrangement has significant implications for the region.
From a military and geopolitical standpoint, the temporary cessation of hostilities opens up a range of opportunities and risks, the effects of which will ripple through the Middle East.
As a powerful, Iran-backed militia, Hezbollah held strategic importance for Tehran’s influence across the region. The ceasefire will shift the focus away from southern Lebanon and along Israel’s northern borders to other areas of conflict.
That said, the terrorist group will undoubtedly use this period to rearm, regroup, and plan for future engagements. From Israel’s perspective, the ceasefire provides a moment of respite, though not one of certainty. Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, some of which is capable of reaching deep into Israeli territory, remains extant if significantly degraded.
Should the ceasefire break down, Israel could find itself once again in a protracted conflict, which it is keen to avoid given the broader instability that would arise.
In this context, Israel may choose to treat the ceasefire as a temporary opportunity for diplomacy and reorganisation, ensuring that its military readiness is maintained while attempting to reduce the longer-term threat posed on its northern border.
In Lebanon, however, the ceasefire may be viewed differently. The Lebanese state’s inability to control Hezbollah’s military activities continues to undermine its sovereignty. While some factions within Lebanon may view the ceasefire as an opportunity for political stabilisation, others will see it as yet another sign of the state’s impotence in dealing with the Iranian-backed militia.
A final consideration is the broader regional ramifications. Israel will now be able to switch its attention to Gaza and finish off Hamas, or as close to that end state they can achieve. They may also wish to tackle the myriad of other Iranian-backed militia groups in Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere, or even deal with the Houthis in alliance with others.
Finally, there is the fount of all evil, Tehran. Netanyahu’s words were full of foreboding, and the region could well do without the malign presence of the ayatollahs and their Islamic Republican Guard Corps military arm.
Who knows? Perhaps it’s time for the USA and Israel to grasp this particular nettle. I would say that, while the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire offers a welcome reduction in immediate violence, its long-term implications are far more uncertain.
The true test will be whether this ceasefire can evolve into a more durable peace or whether it merely marks the next chapter in an ongoing cycle of conflict.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk