In theory, uncovering betting value in the proposition market Super Bowl Sunday is unlikely.
That’s because the sharpest minds and syndicates have bet the vast NFL offerings for more than 10 days, causing the odds to settle on fair prices. Again, in theory.
However, I maintain that Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson currently has mispriced odds because of his upside and home run potential.
Henderson’s rushing prop is 18.5 yards at both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The rookie was barely used in the AFC Championship game with only three carries, but I blame the snow and slippery field. His patient and cutback style is not conducive to that type of footing so I understand the coaching staff’s decision to limit his playing time.
However, in each of New England’s first two playoff games, Henderson had at least nine carries and 25 rushing yards.
In normal weather, he has excellent speed and provides a breakaway threat that the Pats must utilize. Thus, I expect him to resume his workload against the Seahawks. Similarly, I even like his +2,000 odds to be the game’s leading rusher, considering he has two runs this season of at least 65 yards.
I have a 94-80-2 ATS record in this Post sports section, pending my Saturday play, and my next pick is Henderson Over 18.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
