Amongst great fanfare and waving of flags the Royal Navy’s aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales (HMSPoW) sailed from Portsmouth this week, bound for an epic eight-month deployment which will take her to the Indo-Pacific and back. She will be joined by other vessels drawn from the RN and allied navies which together will form Carrier Strike Group 25 (CSG25).
Once fully constituted, CSG25 will comprise of HMS Prince of Wales, destroyer HMS Dauntless, frigate HMS Richmond, attack submarine HMS Astute, Royal Canadian Navy frigate HMCS Ville De Quebec, Royal Norwegian Navy frigate HNoMS Roald Amundsen, Spanish Navy frigate ESPS Mendez Nunez and, when it gets to the Indian Ocean, Royal New Zealand Navy frigate HMNZS Te Kaha.
CSG25 will also see two UK F-35 squadrons embarked on Prince of Wales, 809 Naval Air Squadron (NAS) “Immortals” and 617 Squadron “Dambusters”, with the deployment of both squadrons aimed at achieving full operating capability for the UK F-35B fleet.
Support and supply vessels will include the oilers RFA Tidespring and NoMS Maud. It’s a sizeable force and will represent a commanding presence on the oceans.
Between now and December, the CSG will conduct a series of exercises and operations known as Operation Highmast with air, sea and land forces of its allies in the Mediterranean, Middle East, South-east Asia, Japan and Australia.
This will be the second deployment of the UK’s Carrier Strike Group, the first being led by HMS Queen Elizabeth in 2021 during the Covid pandemic.
After various preliminary work-up exercises in the North Sea and Bay of Biscay, CSG25 will enter the Mediterranean where it will be operating under NATO command. It’s when it leaves the Mediterranean that things might become more interesting.
It appears that HMSPoW and its accompanying escorts will then transit the Suez Canal into the Red Sea, where the Houthi rebels in Yemen have been lobbing missiles and seaborne armed drones at international shipping since November 2023, and have sunk two ships and injured many crew members.
What if the Houthis have a pop at HMSPoW and her escorts as they sail by? I suspect that the temptation will be too much for them and that they will indeed have a go. Or, if their leadership orders restraint, then some hothead or breakaway group may well make their bid for instant fame and glory and ignore orders. My personal view is that some sort of attack is almost inevitable.
Would they be able to hit Prince of Wales or any of its escorts? It is quite possible but unlikely given the vast array of defensive weaponry the task force will deploy. We just have to remember, though, that the defence has to be successful all of the time whereas the Houthis only have to be successful once to achieve their aim.
If they manage to hit HMSPoW with a drone or missile, will they succeed in sinking it? Again, my personal view is that this is highly unlikely, but you never know; HMS Hood was sunk by one or two shells from the German battleship Bismarck in the Denmark Strait in May 1941. One ballistic missile through the aircraft carrier’s deck or a seaborne uncrewed drone strike would make their point.
So far the UK government has not given any indications as to whether CSG25 will carry out any missions defending merchant shipping from Houthi attacks, or indeed launch strikes against the Houthis while in the Red Sea. Plus we must remember that while the US Navy is not part of the group it too will have a sizeable naval presence in the area.
Any attack by the Houthis, therefore, is likely to be returned tenfold and bring death and destruction upon them. It may be that discretion proves to be the better part of valour on their part, but there is little doubt that the warships will be at some risk.
If CSG25 transits the Red Sea without serious incident, and let’s hope that proves to be the case, then the next obvious area for increased risk arises when they reach the South China Sea, where several nations are currently arguing over sovereignty of various island groups.
Most risky of all might be for CSG25 attempt any Freedom of Navigation exercise through the Taiwan Strait, which China would probably regard as extreme provocation, so I don’t think it will happen. But plenty of water will have passed under the hulls before we get to that point, and who knows how the world will stand then?
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk