Vladimir Putin is trying to unify Russian society, particularly the country’s elites, to ensure that his successor will continue “aggressive and dangerous” ideals that perpetuate “eternal conflict” with the West and NATO, experts have warned. It comes amid the prospect of a key resignation that could “threaten the stability” of the President’s regime. Russia is gearing up to celebrate Victory Day marking the end of the Second World War, which is referred to as the “Great Patriotic War”, in Europe on May 8. Putin has called a ceasefire in Ukraine to coincide with the date.
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) say the Kremlin is continuing to use the “mythos” of the Soviet Union’s role in World War Two to “form the basis of a new state ideology that will span generations and that Russia intends to leverage to justify a future military conflict against the West”. The ISW’s daily report on the war in Ukraine highlighted that Russian Security Council Secretary and former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu published an op-ed in the government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta on May 6, arguing that military and political unity against a common enemy is “Russia’s only path to a strong and victorious future”.
He also “repeatedly juxtaposed the Red Army’s defeat of Nazi Germany in the Second World War with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine”.
It is also reported that there are initiatives to place veterans of the war in Ukraine in positions of power in Russia, as well as “long-term rhetorical campaigns to disseminate the belief that the world is divided into two groups (the West and the Russian-led ‘multipolar world’) seeking to destroy one another.”
However, a rival outlook could threaten Putin’s government, it has been suggested. The ISW wrote: “Putin is promoting an informal state ideology that supports a civic Russian identity and a multiethnic and religiously diverse population.
“Russian ultranationalists, whose perspective is often voiced most clearly by Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin, appear more interested in an ideology predicated on a Russian state mainly led by and [composed] of ethnic Russians that defends and platforms Russian Orthodoxy.
“Putin is likely resistant to such an ideology as it risks fragmenting Russia’s multiethnic and religiously-diverse population and could pose a threat to regime stability.
“Russian officials are struggling to balance placating the increasingly influential ultranationalist community with offsetting critical economic issues and labor shortages with migrant labor, and the war in Ukraine and a possible future conflict with the West will only exacerbate these issues.”
Moreover, a further problem to the President is the prospect of the leader of the Russian Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, stepping down.
Opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported on March 27, citing a source in the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), that Kadyrov’s relations with Putin have soured recently due to his alleged “frequent and uncoordinated negotiations” with monarchies in the Middle East.
The ISW stated: “Kadyrov’s death or departure from office, should it occur during or immediately after the war in Ukraine, could leave Putin’s interests in the North Caucasus unguarded unless Kadyrov and Putin appoint a suitable successor.”
After a call between Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday, the Prime Minister’s spokesperson said: “Turning to the situation in Ukraine, the leaders discussed the need for Russia to commit to a 30-day ceasefire to ensure meaningful peace talks. Ukraine had proved it was willing and ready to come to the table and was the party of peace, the Prime Minister added.”