It’s back.
After months of speculation, infamous climate troublemaker El Niño has officially formed, federal scientists from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday.
The climate pattern is one of the main drivers of weather in the U.S. and around the globe, especially in the fall, winter and spring.
“Depending on its strength, El Niño can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center.
According to the CPC, “the odds of it becoming a strong event at its peak are pretty good, at 56%. Chances of at least a moderate event are about 84%.”
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which surface sea water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average. It occurs, on average, every 2-7 years.
Its name means the Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El Niño originally was recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.
The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region.
How does El Niño affect US weather?
El Niño’s influence on the U.S. is weak during the summer and more notable in the late fall through spring, NOAA said.
Typically, moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the fall and winter result in wetter-than-average conditions from southern California to the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.
In addition, El Niño winters also bring better chances for warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier of the country.
How does El Niño impact hurricanes?
El Niño usually helps to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, experts say.
El Niño “tends to lead to an increase in vertical wind shear, which tends to reduce the number of hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic,” said David DeWitt, director of the Climate Prediction Center. Because the winds prevent hurricanes from building the vertical structure that helps them grow stronger, NOAA and other forecasters factor in El Niño when issuing seasonal hurricane predictions.
But this year, forecasters say that may not happen, because of record hot Atlantic temperatures that would counteract the El Niño winds that normally decapitate many storms.
However, El Niño can increase the number of hurricanes that form in the eastern Pacific basin.
Could this El Niño help fuel Earth’s warmest year on record?
In the past, a strong El Niño has led to record global warmth, like in 2016 and 1998. Scientists earlier this year had been saying next year is more likely to set a record heat, especially because El Niños usually reach peak power in winter. But this El Niño started even earlier than usual.
“The onset of El Niño has implications for placing 2023 in the running for warmest year on record when combined with climate-warming background,” said University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd.
Contributing: The Associated Press
