The imminent accession of President Donald J Trump to the White House for a second term has got the world in a tizz. No more so in Ukraine, where Kyiv is not quite sure – nobody is actually – what this might mean for US support in their war with Russia.
It’s well known that Trump thinks he can sort out the war quickly and bring peace to that troubled part of the world. In fact he’s on record as saying he could bring the conflict to an end “in a day”.
Well, of course he can’t, but we need to read between the lines. It’s well known that he has long thought that European countries have been riding on the coat-tails of the USA in terms of defence, and in this observation he is absolutely right. Previously he threatened to withdraw the USA from NATO altogether if the European nations didn’t up their game.
That aside, there are three things Trump will need to achieve to bring Putin and Zelensky to the negotiation table. The first is to persuade Putin that he’s going to lose eventually in the face of US and NATO support for Ukraine. Russia cannot realistically sustain its level of effort beyond 2025, assistance from China, Iran, and North Korea notwithstanding.
The second is to sweet-talk Zelensky and Putin into compromise. Ukraine has quite firmly stated that its end game is the restoration of all captured territory and a return to the status quo ante bellum as of 2014. The future of Crimea is crucial here. Neither side wants to give it up voluntarily, but if it was to be returned to Ukraine then the future constitutional arrangements for Donetsk and Luhansk might be up for discussion.
The third is Ukraine’s accession into NATO. From the outside this appears to be inevitable, although it may be delayed for many years yet. For Russia it will signal that it is being threatened along its borders once again. Trump will need to resolve this.
I suspect The Donald will relish the challenge. He likes to think of himself as a deal-maker and if he can pull this off then his star will shine bright. The rest of the world may think otherwise.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
