Lee Anderson would hold his Ashfield constituency if an election was held tomorrow, according to data from Electoral Calculus.
Not only that, but the pollster predicts that Reform UK would win eleven more seats, taking their total to 16.
Reacting to the prediction about holding his Nottinghamshire seat, Mr Anderson delivered a five-word message: “Basic common sense, it’s spreading”.
Electoral Calculus told Express.co.uk that, although it had not done any MRP polling since the General Election in July, it overlaid the latest national poll of polls – which has Reform UK up five points and Labour down five points – over the Ashfield seat.
At the start of the month, the polling company wrote that Reform’s latest post-election bounce puts the party “at a point where it is a threat to Labour MPs.”
It noted that in the 98 seats where Reform finished in second place on July 4, 89 of those were won by Labour MPs.
On the latest data, Electoral Calculus believes if an election was held tomorrow Nigel Farage’s party would take ten seats off the Government and just one off the Tories.
Even more ominously, the pollster predicts Reform could take dozens of seats if Labour’s popularity continues to slide and Tories vote tactically in seats they know they can’t win.
Despite the Reform surge, Electoral Calculus would still predict Labour to win the most seats if an election was held on 21 November.
Although it only has a 36 percent probability that it would win an absolute majority.
Meanwhile, according to the poll of polls run by Politico, the Tories are only two percentage points behind Labour. New leader Kemi Badenoch will be hopeful of usurping the Government in the data before long, as the polls continue to narrow.
