Donald Trump has had a busy time of it in the two weeks since he assumed the US Presidency, levying a barrage of tariffs as pressure points to force economic and political settlements with China, Mexico, Canada and soon the EU.
But if there is one policy which has remained crystal clear without the need for diplomatic poker , it is his ambition to neutralise Iran’s destabilising power across the Middle East.
His return to a maximum pressure policy on the Islamic regime was expected – Trump is of a rare breed of Western leader that does exactly what he says he will do.
Israel knows that the red lines imposed by President Biden no longer apply, in terms of which Iranian targets it may attack and when to secure its security against a room that has promised to wipe it off the face of the earth- though it will wait to see whether the policy is effective.
For Iran, it comes precisely at a time when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei can afford it least.
Losses over the past few months with its proxies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, coupled with Iran’s ejection from vital supply routes in Syria, have left the regime scrabbling to look for ways that it can reconstitute its so-called “ring of fire” around Israel.
At home, the regime sits on a powder keg.
It still bears the bruises following the widespread protest which accompanied the death in custody of Mahsa Amini after she was arrested for improperly wearing her head scarf.
And, despite a resurgence over the last four years, it is aware of mounting discontent over the state of Iran’s fragile economy,
This of course, isn’t helped by thef fact that it chooses to spend £20 billion a year to boost its Shi’a agenda across the Middle East – money that would be better served meeting of the needs of its 80 million inhabitants of which two thirds are under 30.
At the beginning of January large sections of Tehran’s influential bazaar went on strike in protest against crippling price hikes and skyrocketing currency rates.
Shoemakers, fabric sellers and copper merchants joined together in a march to protest:”You can’t do business with an 800,000 rial dollar!”
So aware is the regime of this discontent, that it has taken the decision to hold most executions- traditionally public hangings viewed as a popular way to unify the populace – in prison cells, for fear that large gatherings may facilitate more protests.
Imagine the pressure it will feel when the effect of oil-exporting sanctions kick in, and Tehran’s taxi rivers begin to protest about the price of petrol.
While Trump’s maximum pressure campaign is aimed, ostensibly, at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions , the US president has made no bones about a wider context.
In 2020 he declared: “For far too long – all the way back to 1979, to be exact – nations have tolerated Iran’s destructive and destabilising behaviour in the Middle East and beyond. Those days are over.
“Iran has been the leading sponsor of terrorism, and their pursuit of nuclear weapons threatens the civilised world. We will never let that happen.”
It leaves the regime, which knows that only a nuclear programme can deter more crippling air strikes or even, as far as it is aware, forcible regime change, desperately trying to buy time.
But time is not on its ide and, short of full-blown war, it is not clear how Russia or even China can save it now.