The number of Channel crossings will never fall to zero despite intensifying efforts to end the crisis, a senior border chief has admitted.
Chris Tilley, Deputy Director of Small Boats Operational Command, warned smuggling gangs have become “numb” to deaths and misery.
And he warned migrants have died in fights as they desperately try to secure a place on a boat bound for the UK.
Mr Tilley admitted it is “very difficult” to prevent deaths in the Channel “all of the time” once the vessels are on the water.
In a rare interview, the deputy director said that after “18 months to two years”, law enforcement agencies finally have the right “structures” in place to “really start taking chunks” out of the organised crime gangs.
He said: “They are well embedded, but they have enormous future potential to really start taking chunks out of them and reducing the number of crossings.
“In terms of being optimistic about the problem, I am very optimistic.
“There are so many things now in place. They have taken 18 months, two years to get them in place, but I am hopeful 2024 will consolidate the gains we made last year.
“We’re expecting to see a reduction, primarily based on the increasing effectiveness of the French response, also on some of the upstream measures that have been taken with Governments, countries of origin, the countries that migrants are passing through.”
So far, 1,716 people have made the crossing this year, down from 2,720 in the same period last year.
But Mr Tilley, who has recently seen how the Italian authorities are responding to small boat crossings, issued a word of warning to those hoping crossings will be reduced to zero.
He said: “To manage people’s expectations, there have always been clandestine illegal crossings – for decades.
“We don’t hold any false hope that we will be able to reduce clandestine offences to 0.
“But what we can say is we can stop this becoming a well publicised, very high risk route into the UK with no penalties.
“We can make sure that no-one is profiting from this and we can make sure that we have done everything we can to anticipate any future changes. We know migration pressures are not going to go away.
“So we are already looking at what might happen next.”
During a visit to Western Jet Foil, Dover, the Daily Express heard harrowing details of how migrants drown.
As the boats begin to deflate and take on water, a section of the vessel will begin to fold in on itself.
Amid the terror and panic, some migrants scramble to the front of the sinking boat, causing the dinghy’s integrity to fail further.
And those trapped at the back are unable to escape, submerged under the water, as the boat continues to collapse on top of them.
Mr Tilley told the Daily Express, the smugglers operating in Northern France are willing to take more risks than ever before.
There has been a fatal crossing in each of the last six months.
Mr Tilley said: “The brutal fact that I personally think is responsible for that increasing casualty rate, is that with each successive event, the public interest in those tragic incidents reduces.
“The more frequently it happens, the less it effects the business model.
“After the events of November 2021 [when 27 people drowned in the Channel], we saw an almost self-imposed stop on crossings.
“That wasn’t just migrants refusing to cross in those conditions, because the conditions were good enough to continue. There was a real shock to the OCGs as well.
“But with successive fatalities, it becomes more of an accepted risk.
“It can be downplayed. It doesn’t take away from the tragedy of any event. But you can see how constant coverage of this, in some ways without putting the crossing into context, the messaging that is received by the migrants, it becomes less of a consideration for them.
“The smugglers have become numb to the deaths they are causing and they are seeking to exploit that advantage.”
The number of crossings over the Winter months has decreased due to a combination of numerous storms and intensifying law enforcement operations designed to disrupt the gangs.
And this has led to more desperation on the beaches and within the migrant camps.
Mr Tilley, a former British Army paratrooper, told the Daily Express: “We’re seeing increasing violence on the French side, not just migrants fighting to try and prevent the French law enforcement from disrupting those launches.
“But we are also seeing violence amongst migrants trying to essentially get on boats.
“There will be a melee and a scrum and there have been fatalities that have been associated with that rush to get on a boat at the expense of people’s safety.”
And the senior border chief heaped praise on the improved response of the French Gendarmeries and Police Nationale.
He said: “There is a brilliant French reception system, the French are doing their utmost to stop people getting to the beaches but we what we are unable to control, once people are in the water, it is a joint problem and morally and ethically we have a responsibility to make sure that, within our power, nobody dies and it is very difficult to achieve that all of the time.”
And Mr Tilley admitted the response to the small boats crisis has been “constrained” by politicians failing to “see the bigger picture”.
He said: “What I have been keen to do is to put in the minds of the public, politicians and officials, is the understanding that it is not just a simple migration issue to tackle.
“There are drivers to it. We are constrained in the way we respond and it requires a really fully informed public debate to understand those constraints and talk about them in a constructive way and I would say a lot of the public, political debate focuses on particular issues to the detriment of the bigger picture.
“I would be keen to more effectively shape public debate in the UK and internationally. I would do everything I could to accelerate engagement with countries of origin and countries of transit to make sure there is a full international response.
“The UK is leading that. And in many senses, the UK is already pushing on an open door.”
But in a message to left wing critics who claim the UK is wrong to be trying to protect its borders, the Small Boats Operational Command chief said: “We are able to deal with the human misery that is being forced upon our country and we are doing it humanely, fairly and professionally.”
Home Secretary James Cleverly again insisted he wants Channel crossings to fall to zero.
Mr Cleverly, speaking as he signed a new migration deal which will see Border Force officers and drones deployed to the EU’s external borders to help stem the flow of illegal migration, said: ‘That is absolutely my target. My target is to achieve zero.’
Referring to Britain’s new arrangement with Frontex, he added: “I want to get to zero as soon as possible.
“The agreement that we’re signing today will be a big assistance in doing that, as will Rwanda, and as will the other things we’ve been doing.”
The number of people crossing the Channel in small boats last year fell from 45,755 to 29,437.
