The Providence Friars will be in a unique predicament at the Big East Tournament.
The Friars have already made it known that head coach Kim English won’t be returning to the program next season, creating a strange lame-duck situation for the 37-year-old as he leads his charges into Madison Square Garden after a dismal season.
The Friars finished the campaign with a 14-17 record overall, and a 7-13 mark in Big East play. That’s good enough for the No. 9 seed in the tournament.
It’s hard to tell how a team will react to a situation like this, but the betting market does believe that English will have his team ready for Wednesday’s tilt with fellow also-ran, Butler.
Providence is a 1.5-point favorite in the opening game of the tourney.
Providence vs. Butler odds, prediction
Two things can be true: Providence was disappointing in 2025-26, but it was also quite unfortunate. Only nine teams ranked lower in KenPom’s luck ratings (which measure the difference between a team’s actual winning percentage and its expected winning percentage) this season, which tells us that maybe English is getting a raw deal.
Betting on College Basketball?
Nonetheless, the numbers still aren’t pretty. According to KenPom, Providence is the 73rd-best team in the country, and would be favored by 11.4 points over the average Division I opponent in this power rankings. Bart Torvik’s model has the Friars pegged in almost the same exact spot. The Friars are who we thought they were.
The good news is that Butler doesn’t grade out any better.
KenPom has Butler as the No. 82 team in the country, and Bart Torvik has the Bulldogs at No. 71, one spot ahead of Providence.
The biggest difference between these two teams is how they grade out on offense. The Friars were a terrific scoring unit, averaging a Big East-best 83.8 points per game in conference play. Overall, KenPom and Bart Torvik make Providence a top-40 offensive side, overall.
Butler’s offensive numbers pale in comparison, but their stats on defense were better than the Friars, who struggled to stop anybody all season.
That said, it’s not like the Bulldogs were a defensive juggernaut. They conceded the third-most points per game in the Big East, and were outside the top-100 in both KenPom and Bart Torvik’s models.
Providence has some baggage to sort through, but the numbers suggest that the Friars are the better team in this matchup.
The Play: Providence moneyline (-125, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
