Reform UK’s star continues to rise as Nigel Farage’s party tops yet another poll, this time by City AM Freshwater Strategy. In the latest poll, Reform takes a 3-point lead over Labour (27% to 24%) with the Tories on 23%.
Still, despite this seeming success, these numbers fall well short of an overall majority, partly thanks to voter distribution under Britain’s first past the post electoral system.
On the latest numbers then, Reform would be on 216 seats. While in combination with 144 seats for the Tories would give the two parties enough to pass the 326-seat mark for a combined majority in the House of Commons, Farage has been clear he would prefer not to get into bed with the Conservatives.
Labour – which won a landslide last July – would meanwhile see their MP count crash to a meagre 161, a loss of 251 seats in Parliament.
Aside from needing to do a deal with the toxic Tories, Reform also runs a risk of tactical voting, with pollsters YouGov recently warning of this given the low favourability rating Farage’s party still has despite its poll gains.
While many Tory voters would switch to Reform and many Reform voters would keep faith with Farage’s party, in a hypothetical Labour-Reform match-up in key marginals, Labour could heavily rely on support from Lib Dem and Green voters.
Recent data also showed that while Reform UK does well among older voters, support reduces for the under-45s and noticeably so among the youngest voters, where Labour does predictably better.
Still, this may not keep Farage up at night too much given that older people are far more likely to vote, and Reform backers seem to be especially energised by the challenger party.
With a drive to professionalise, money coming in, new offices, better vetting and recent councillor defections, Reform is clearly on the up, and the latest City AM poll confirms this.
However, on current numbers, Reform is still well short of a 326-majority needed to govern without the Tories, a party Farage is clearly reluctant to cut a deal with. Much now depends on whether the Conservatives ditch leader Kemi Badenoch, which – for my money – would be terrible optics for the Tories.
Reform UK is clearly on the march, but low favourability – especially among younger voters – could yet undermine the party’s seemingly inexorable rise.
