The deputy PM has been cast into the political wilderness after breaching the ministerial code by underpaying stamp duty on her £800,000 seaside flat in Hove, saving around £40,000. It was a terrible look for a politician so keen on hiking tax charges on everyone else.
Worse, she tried to brazen it out. When first confronted with the claims, her spokesman insisted she had “paid the correct duty” and said “any suggestion otherwise is entirely without basis”. Only later, under pressure, did she quietly seek a second legal opinion and change her story. There are fresh revelations today.
Her blundering cover-up dragged down Keir Starmer too, after he rushed to defend her before the facts were established.
Not a good look for “Mr Rules”, although as I’ve pointed out before, the PM also has a shockingly loose relationship with the truth.
Yet despite her dramatic fall from grace, one fact remains: Labour activists still adore her. And that spells trouble for the embattled PM.
Rayner’s appeal rests on more than party loyalty. She has a backstory millions recognise. Raised in poverty, a teenage mother, care worker and union official, with a messy relationship and a disabled child, she embodies social mobility in a way no other frontbencher does.
That’s why left-wing newspaper The Observer plastered her face across its front page with the headline: “Rayner had pure class – our class.”
Many sneer at her vaping, tattoos and blunt language, such as calling Tories “scum”. But her supporters love her for it.
The sight of Reform UK’s conference goers gleefully celebrating her resignation will only make them love her more. And loathe the PM.
They see Rayner as an authentic working class Northern woman, brought down by grey men in suits. Men who look an awful lot like Keir Starmer.
“Red Ange” is colourful where the rest of the Labour front bench are the very definition of monochrome.
No prominent Labour figure has what she’s got. Which is why her story is far from over. She’ll be back. With a vengeance.
Unsurprisingly, Rayner and Starmer never clicked. He tried to sideline her after the Hartlepool by-election defeat in 2021, only to retreat when she threatened a leadership challenge.
The traits in Starmer that infuriate Rayner, such as his caution, managerial style and drift to the right, are the same things that rile the Labour left.
Starmer has reshuffled and is now revamping policy. His priorities are tightening welfare eligibility, clamping down on immigration and balancing the books to avoid a bond market meltdown.
None of this will endear him to left-wing activists or restless backbenchers. The “Red Queen” will be their obvious rallying point.
Politicians have bounced back from financial scandal before, notably Labour’s Peter Mandelson, the party’s very own Prince of Darkness. Unless Starmer can seize control of his fractious party, the risk is clear.
The Labour movement will be in turmoil as he pushes through difficult decisions, and there’s a natural red-headed figurehead waiting in the wings.
Rayner’s time in the wilderness could be shorter than even she thinks. And far shorter than Keir Starmer would like.