Labour’s former deputy PM remains a star on the left. They adore “Red Ange” for her blunt talk, authentic working-class credentials and trade union background. Her supporters will forgive her anything, including dodging £40,000 stamp duty on her £800,000 luxury second home in Hove. Most would have her back in a heartbeat, with the notable exception of PM Keir Starmer.
Rayner may be out of the cabinet but she’s lingering on for two reasons. First, she’s already manoeuvring for a comeback, ideally in an even more senior role. Like PM. Plenty in the Labour Party would love to install her as leader, once Starmer turns turtle.
Second, her big political achievement will soon emerge, in the shape of her hugely controversial Employment Rights Bill. Unfortunately, it could wreak havoc on the UK economy.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has destroyed growth and jobs with reckless tax and spending choices, while energy secretary Ed Miliband is squandering tens of billions on his lunatic charge towards net zero.
They’re the leading figures in what I previously dubbed Labour’s economic suicide squad. Rayner was the third.
And now, thanks to her Employment Rights Bill, she’s about to finish the job.
Rayner’s Bill will hand workers extremely powerful workplace rights from day one, removing the valuable probation periods that let employers filter out unsuitable hires.
Previously, shirkers and malingerers who made it through the recruitment process could be moved on. But under Rayner’s proposals, employers could be stuck with them indefinitely.
They’ll also face a surge in employment tribunal claims, costing an estimated £5billion a year. That’s on top of all the other costs Reeves and Miliband have piled onto employers.
Faced with these risks, businesses may simply stop hiring, particularly younger workers. The result: higher unemployment and lower wages, with the cost ultimately hitting us all.
The Growth Commission, a body of independent economists, has been crunching the numbers and they’re shocking. It reckons Rayner’s handiwork could reduce GDP per person by between 1.4% and 2.8% within a decade, costing up to £1,108 for every man, woman and child in the country.
That’s a total hit of anything from £38billion to £76billion.
Growth Commission chairman Shanker Singham said it’s clear the Employment Rights Bill will further harm the UK’s economic prospects, and he’s not the only critic. Ever Labour backers hate and fear it.
Incredibly, left-leaning thick tank the Resolution Foundation, whose former boss Torsten Bell is actually writing this year’s Budget, is terrified too.
The Foundation has also warned the bill could cripple the jobs market. Things are bad enough, with unemployment rising from 4.1% to 4.8% since Labour took power. Soon, it will get even worse.
Yet Labour insists it has are no plans to water down the proposals. It continues to claim Rayner’s Bill will raise wages and living standards, for which there is no evidence.
Instead, it’s likely to sink growth and destroy jobs, while unleashing union militants. And we will all bear the cost, to the tune of more than £1,100 each.
Rayner has done remarkable damage in a short period. The idea of her returning to power one day to inflict even more is truly chilling.