Nigel Farage is undoubtedly having a good few weeks – winning ‘Newcomer of the Year’ at The Spectator’s Parliamentarian of the Year awards, seeing his party pull ahead of the Labour government in a national poll and win victories in two council by-elections.
And the resulting jubilation isn’t limited to the confines of Reform UK HQ – with veteran broadcaster Andrew Neil joining the growing chorus of politicos convinced of the threat Farage’s party could pose to Labour in the next general election.
In his latest column for MailOnline, Mr Neil suggested that the “stunned silence” following Farage’s ‘Newcomer of the Year’ speech – in which he declared a “political revolution” and a sweep for Reform in 2029 – was born of the realisation that “he might well be right”.
Pointing to Labour’s shallow victory in July, which saw Keir Starmer’s party take home only a third of the overall vote, Mr Neil predicted that Reform could feasibly become the largest party in government at the next election if it manages to topple the two-party system and collect around 30% of the vote, leaving the Tories and Labour with roughly 25% each.
Far-fetched though it might seem, a new poll conducted by Find Out Now found that the Conservatives were the most popular party with 26%, closely followed by Reform with 24% and Labour with 23%.
“Labour seems destined for self-destruction [and] new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has yet to cut through to the wider public,” Mr Neil wrote.
Meanwhile, “Reform can campaign in favour of oil and gas in Scotland, the car industry in the Midlands, farmers in rural areas and against immigration and net zero everywhere”.
The party’s emergence as an underdog vote-winner could be bolstered, he suggests, by Red Wall voters in northern England feeling disillusioned both by the unpopular Labour government and “posh party” Tories.
Reform has none of either party’s baggage, and while Labour might still be pinning their hopes on the party splitting the right-wing vote, Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the US last month should cause warning bells to ring.
Especially if, as Mr Neil suggests, the Prime Minister repeats the Biden administration’s mistakes.
“His government is even more obsessed with net zero than Biden-Harris,” the former Spectator editor writes. “[He also] inherits record net migration but can’t even be bothered to make it one of his so-called ‘missions’, much less put a figure on any cut.”
While opinion polls shouldn’t be given undue credence just a few months into a new parliament, the winds of change do seem to be blowing in one particular direction – and could be given even further “momentum” if rumours of Elon Musk financially backing Farage have any truth to them, something he has, for the record, denied.
After a shaky first five months in power, Keir Starmer made a concentrated effort to reset the narrative in a speech on Thursday, where he outlined six “milestones” that he said would allow the public to “hold our feet to the fire” on the achievements of his government.
Speaking at Pinewood Studios, the Prime Minister pledged to deliver higher living standards, build 1.5 million homes and cut NHS waiting lists. He declined to provide a specific target for immigration, however, and it did not feature as one of his “milestone” policies.
Mr Starmer said he instead regarded controlling the borders as a “foundational” part of governing, separate from the “ambitious” targets he unveiled in the speech.
