President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have a problem.
Separate problems, that is: Biden’s age and Trump’s legal troubles are giving a third of the voters they are likely to target second thoughts about supporting them in a race that is already close, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll finds.
While their challenges could hardly be more different – Biden’s date of birth beyond his control, while allegations of Trump’s actions have brought indictments in state and now federal court – the political impact at the moment is strikingly similar.
For Biden, 37% of Democratic and Independent voters say the 80-year-old president’s age makes them less likely to vote for him; just 3% say it makes them more likely. A 56% majority say it doesn’t make a difference.
For Trump, 34% of Republican and Independent voters say his legal situation makes them less likely to vote for him, though another slice, 11%, say it makes them more likely to support him. A 51% majority say it doesn’t make a difference.
The nationwide survey of 1,000 registered voters, taken by landline and cellphone June 5-9, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Most of the interviews were completed before Trump announced he would be indicted on federal charges related to his handling of sensitive government documents after he left the White House. In recent weeks, he also has been indicted on state charges in New York and found civilly liable for sexual abuse and defamation.
The liabilities voters see in the all-but-certain Democratic nominee and the leading contender for the Republican nomination have left the contest unsettled and fueled interest in third parties, although no significant independent contender has yet emerged.
“We have a choice between some kind of a maniac who tried to take over the government and a guy who’s old and can hardly see,” complained Carl Listrom, 82, a retired bookkeeper from Platte County, Missouri, who was among those polled. A Democrat, he voted for Biden in 2020 and would support him again, but not with alacrity.
“I’m less enthusiastic – his age, his white hair,” he said. But then he referred to Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol. “That coup d’etat that he put together, that was the last straw for me.”
Both contenders in unprecedented territory
Both contenders have entered unprecedented territory. Biden is already the oldest person to serve as president, and Trump is the first ex-president to be indicted.
If there is a 2020 rematch between them, Biden now narrowly edges Trump, 34% to 32%, with 23% supporting an unnamed third-party candidate and another 10% undecided. Biden’s advantage is within the poll’s margin of error.
If Biden faces Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the president leads by more, 33%-26%, with 25% supporting a third-party candidate and 14% undecided.
“If they have a good chance of winning, then, yes, I would absolutely support a third party,” said Sarah Foust, 37, a preschool teacher from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. A Republican who voted for Trump in 2020, she is “75%” inclined to vote for him again.
“I’m a conservative; I would say right-leaning but mostly God-fearing,” she said. She said Trump “got the job done” as president but also triggered such negative reactions from opponents that she is concerned about electing him again. “I don’t want to see anybody getting hurt,” she said.
For Biden, even some of his strong supporters express concern about his age.
“He is getting older; I worry about that a little bit,” said Thomas Egge, 36, a Democrat from Decatur, Georgia. “I mean, obviously, it’d be exciting if we had somebody young who was coming in and had a lot of positions we could vote for.” In the last election, he was a fan of Pete Buttigieg, now the Transportation secretary. He’s 41.
The Republican race is Trump’s to lose
Even as Trump prepares to be arraigned in federal court in Miami Tuesday afternoon, he has opened a yawning lead in the race for the Republican nomination.
In the survey, he was the first choice of 48% of those who plan to vote in GOP primaries and caucuses, a lead of 25 percentage points over DeSantis, at 23%.
No other candidate breaks into double-digits. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is at 6%. Former Vice President Mike Pence and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are at 4%. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is at 2%. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and former conservative talk-show host Larry Elder are at 1%. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum received no support.
When the first and second choices of Republican primary voters are combined, a test of how broadly acceptable they are in the party, Trump is backed by 63% and DeSantis by 51%. Scott was named by 16% and Pence by 11%.
“I think someone new is good, someone new and younger, and less, hopefully, less corrupt,” said Jennifer Anthony, 25, a project engineer from Austin, Texas, and an independent. She voted for Biden in 2020 but Democratic challenger Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is now her top choice.
In the survey, Biden was supported by 58% of those who plan to vote in Democratic primaries and caucuses. Kennedy was at 15% and self-help author Marianne Williamson at 6%.
If Biden holds the Democratic nomination, Anthony said her preferred candidate among Republicans would be DeSantis. “I think he’s willing to stand up for some things,” she said.
A partisan split on the big issues
Asked about the most important issue determining their vote, 22% overall cite inflation – the top issue but one with a partisan divide. It was named by twice as many Republicans as Democrats, 33% compared with 15%.
The second-ranking issue for Republicans is immigration, chosen by 21%.
Among Democrats, gun control ties with inflation as the most important issue. “Threats to democracy” is third, cited by 12%.
“The poll gives us a roadmap of what primary candidates should focus on and when,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “In the GOP primary, the key issues – combining first and second choices – are inflation (45%) and immigration (40%). That’s it. In the Democratic primaries, candidates need to address a broader spectrum of issues including gun control, health care, inflation, education, and threats to democracy, which all polled in the twenties.”
Karen Green, 63, an independent from Athens, Texas, puts the economy at the top of her list but notes that other issues matter to her, too. She voted for Biden last time; now she’s interested in hearing more from Kennedy and Christie. “I can tell you, it won’t be Trump,” she said. “I would like to feel like my president is honest and can keep his story straight.”
