This is why MLB teams have analytics departments.
Team USA manager Mark DeRosa is coming under fire for saying the Americans already had their quarterfinal spot in the World Baseball Classic secured and then managing like so Tuesday night against Team Italy — only for that not to be the case.
Instead, the Americans very much do not have a spot in the final eight secured and their shocking 8-6 loss Tuesday now means they can be eliminated from the tournament Wednesday due to tiebreakers.
DeRosa is going to have to answer lots of questions about his approach should the Americans — the heavy tournament favorites — not even make it out of pool play since it would appear that he did not know what his team needed to do to advance, which is the bare minimum for a manager.
It all started Tuesday morning during an appearance on MLB Network — the former MLBers employer — when he said the Stars and Stripe already had secured a quarterfinal spot.
“Ton of respect for Italy. It’s weird, we want to win this game even though our ticket’s punched to the quarterfinals because Mexico plays Italy actually (Wednesday),” DeRosa said. “So, the way the schedule lines up this is an important game for us.”
Well, DeRosa was wrong.
Team USA had to win to secure a spot in the quarterfinals and potentially avoid the tiebreakers that would determine which two teams from Pool B would advance.
He then managed the game like the Americans had nothing to worry about.
DeRosa said in the same interview that he wanted to get some guys “off their feet,” which resulted in Paul Goldschmidt starting over Bryce Harper at first base.
When the Americans fell behind, 3-0, after Mets rookie phenom Nolan McLean allowed two homers in his three innings, DeRosa turned to Yankees long man Ryan Yarbrough.
With all due respect to the veteran, inserting the soft-tossing lefty into that spot is not a move that screams urgency.
Yarbrough also struggled to contain the Italians and a three-run deficit turned into a 6-0 hole under his watch before the Italians eventually grabbed an 8-0 edge.
The American rallied late to bring the tying run to the plate, but they couldn’t climb all the way back.
After the game, DeRosa attempted to clarify his remarks.
“I misspoke,” he said. “I was on ‘Hot Stove’ with a couple of buddies today and completely misread the calculations. We knew Mexico was going to play Italy and running all the numbers with if we lost tonight with the runs allowed and runs scored and outs. So, I just misspoke.”
One can argue whether DeRosa’s words match his actions, but the reality is the Americans now are huge Team Italy fans on Wednesday night.
If Italy (3-0) wins, Team USA (3-1) advances since Mexico (2-1) would have two losses. That’s the easiest scenario.
Team Mexico winning is not a death sentence for the U.S., but it becomes a numbers game due to the complicated tie-breaking formula.
If Mexico wins while scoring at least five runs, Team USA also advances.
Should Mexico score no more than four runs in a win, though, the Americans are out.
It’s a shocking position for the American to be in during pool play, and one that surely will haunt DeRosa — who has interviewed for an MLB managerial role in the past — in the years to come.
“It’s out of our control,” Aaron Judge said after the game, per MLB.com. “Now we just need a little luck, and we’ll see what happens.”