A dirty little secret for oddsmakers is that they genuinely hate injuries because they feel vulnerable when they post betting lines.
It is much easier to make accurate odds with both teams at full strength because there is sufficient data.
However, no one knows the true impact of a star player because the sample size is small and the scenario is heavily nuanced.
On Saturday, North Carolina will play its first game since losing star forward Caleb Wilson to a fractured hand. The freshman leads the team in scoring and rebounding.
UNC hosts Pittsburgh as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5 points at DraftKings.
Teams typically respond with supreme effort in the first game without a key player and then the absence is felt more significantly.
I expect the Tar Heels to play with intensity, especially coming off a loss.
The Panthers are one of the ACC’s worst teams and have only covered the point spread in three of their past 11 games. Their offense ranks third worst in the conference in efficiency.
Wilson is a big weapon on both ends of the court but the home crowd should provide a strong boost. The question is whether the Heels can execute properly.
Betting on College Basketball?
My gut tells me that UNC will cover the hefty spread, but I am more focused on the total.
I do not think the Heels will be able to generate the same type of prolific offense, but we will see the defense respond against a weak Panthers offense.
I have a 96-82-2 record against the spread in The Post’s sports section.
My next play is Under 144.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.