VILNIUS, Lithuania — President Joe Biden’s attendance at a NATO summit in Vilnius comes at a turning point for both Russia and Ukraine and at a critical moment for the U.S. president who has staked his reputation on his leadership on the world stage.
Biden enters the summit having made a controversial decision to send Ukraine cluster munitions that are banned by many NATO nations to keep Ukraine from running out of ammo during its counteroffensive. U.S. senators attending the summit want him to convince those same military allies to spend more money on NATO’s collective defense.
The alliance faces tough choices about whether to allow Ukraine to join NATO. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated he may not attend the summit that is being held this week in Lithuania — a vulnerable, ex-Soviet nation in the Baltic region — without a clear framework in place for future entry to the alliance.
As allies kicked off the discussion without him, Zelenskyy announced in a tweet that he was on his way to Vilnius.
NATO members are discussing a statement, he said, on an invitation for membership. But the proposal does not contain a time frame for either the invitation or full membership in the alliance, Zelenskyy said, deriding the proposal as “unprecedented and absurd” and its conditions for inviting Ukraine as too vague.
“It seems there is no readiness neither to invite Ukraine to NATO nor to make it a member of the Alliance. This means that a window of opportunity is being left to bargain Ukraine’s membership in NATO in negotiations with Russia. And for Russia, this means motivation to continue its terror,” he fumed. “Uncertainty is weakness. And I will openly discuss this at the summit.”
Here’s what to watch at this week’s NATO summit:
Will Zelenskyy convince NATO?
NATO has not released its statement on Ukraine’s future in the alliance. But in an unscheduled meeting with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday as the summit commenced, Biden, who plans to meet with Zelenskyy tomorrow, said, “We agree on the language that you propose, relative to the future of Ukraine being able to join NATO. And we’re looking for a continued united NATO.”
The alliance will launch a joint defense council with Ukraine at the summit, but allies are split on when and how to extend a formal offer of admission. Ukraine hopes to use NATO membership as a way to deter future Russian aggression when the war is over.
Stoltenberg said at a pre-summit press conference on Friday that Zelenskyy would participate in the inaugural meeting of the joint defense council, even as the Ukrainian leader continued to suggest he would not come to Vilnius without a clear pathway for NATO membership.
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told USA TODAY in an interview on Friday that while the language on membership is still in flux, NATO members were planning to address Ukraine’s membership aspirations in a statement at the summit’s conclusion.
“Allies have really traveled some distance to reach consensus,” she said. “And I think President Zelenskyy is going to be very reassured by what he sees in the communique.”
Biden said Friday that he does not believe Ukraine is ready for NATO membership. White House National Securityy Advisor Sullivan also poured cold water on the prospect.
Sullivan encouraged the Ukrainian leader to attend the gathering, however, and said Tuesday that Biden looks forward to seeing Zelenskyy at the summit on Wednesday. “If President Biden and President Zelenskyy are in the same city, they’re going to meet,” Sullivan said.
Cluster bombs and fighters jets
Biden’s decision to provide Ukraine with cluster munitions has the potential to divide NATO allies. Many NATO nations are party to a treaty prohibiting the use of the bombs that can detonate much later and inadvertently kill civilians.
Russia, which has been using cluster munitions in the war, the United States and Ukraine are not part of the group.
Sullivan told reporters Tuesday that NATO remains united, despite having differences on the use of the weapons system. He said that when Biden sat down with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in London on Monday, the British leader underscored the U.K.’s legal obligations.
“But you certainly haven’t seen the British prime minister, or really for that matter any of our NATO allies, go out and say that this threatens NATO unity,” Sullivan said. “You haven’t heard anyone say that. And the answer for why that is because it doesn’t threaten NATO unity.”
Biden and his advisers are defending the use of the bombs as a temporary solution to keep Ukraine from running out of ammunition. Sullivan could not say on Tuesday how long it would take to ramp up production but estimated it would take months.
“It took me a while to be convinced to do it. But the main thing is, they either have the weapons to stop the Russians” from halting their offensive, Biden told CNN in a Friday interview. “Or they don’t. And I think they needed them.”
Republican lawmakers are encouraging Biden to go even further – they want him to provide Ukraine with more aggressive military equipment, including tactical ballistic missiles known as ATACMS and F-16 fighter jets promised by Western nations.
U.S. to allies: spend more on defense
A bipartisan group of senators are urging Biden to press allies in Vilnius to spend a higher proportion of their gross domestic products on defense.
According to a NATO report released last week, just 11 of the alliance’s 31 countries are meeting an existing commitment to spend 2% of their annual GDP on defense, although more are on track to do so by 2024.
“Right now, all we are doing is humbly requesting that they fulfill past commitments to get to 2%,” Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican who co-chairs the Senate NATO Observer Group, said in an interview. “The investment now is even more important than ever.”
Biden supports a broad push within the alliance for NATO countries to treat 2% as a floor for spending rather than a ceiling, and U.S. senators attending the summit from both parties say they’ll be reinforcing the message.
“I think it’s important for the NATO countries, the people that we meet with, to hear from the bipartisan delegation from the Senate that this is important to us,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the Democratic co-chair of the Senate observer group, told USA TODAY ahead of the summit.
Defend every inch of NATO territory
Eastern European nations such as Lithuania, which is spending 2.54% of its GDP on defense or roughly $1 billion annually, are meeting their commitments to NATO. But their military spending is relatively small compared to the estimated $860 billion that the U.S will pump into defense this year.
Lithuania is asking wealthy NATO members to increase their military and financial support for less populous Baltic states that share a border with Russia.
Germany said last month that it would deploy 4,000 more troops to Lithuania once the infrastructure exists to house them.
The U.S. announced at last year’s NATO summit that it would permanently station forces in Poland and create a rotational bridge combat team that will be headquartered in Romania. It is still working out the command and control structure for those forces.
Smith, the ambassador to NATO, said the Biden administration would unveil new regional plans in Vilnius that will help position the U.S. to make good on its commitment to defend every inch of NATO territory and help it address terror threats.
Tillis said he thinks the Baltic states are “rightfully concerned, given their geographic position and their size” about the future harm to their countries once the conflict in Ukraine is resolved.
Building up a troop presence and defensive capabilities that can respond to their specific vulnerabilities is a challenge, though, he said.
“I can understand, if I were in their neighborhood, how I’d want a lot more security, and particularly now that we’ve seen Russia invade a sovereign nation,” Tillis, R-N.C. said. “I think that will come up. I think there will be a solution to it. But there are already decisions being made to increase our posture and our capabilities in the Baltic states and in the Baltic.”
What about the Wagner Group?
Lithuania also shares a border with Belarus – a country that is tightly bound to Moscow. Belarus brokered a deal last month to end mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion against Vladimir Putin.
The possible exile of Wager Group mercenaries and their leader to Belarus has created alarm in eastern Europe. Sullivan said Friday the “evolving threat from Belarus” was the first and main topic of conversation during a call he’d just had with the Polish government.
“These are all things that we have been taking into account of going back to the start of this conflict,” he said of threats to nations on NATO’s front lines. “And we constantly look at everything from the positioning of NATO forces to the pre-positioning of various stocks and ammunition in the eastern flank. That will be a continued discussion at Vilnius.”
Prigozhin’s current whereabouts are unconfirmed, and Sullivan said it isn’t a given that his for-hire army will resettle in Belarus. The Kremlin said Monday that Putin met with Prigozhin and his commanders five days after the aborted mutiny and offered them additional options for employment and combat.
Expansion of NATO to include Sweden
Entry into NATO must be unanimous, and Turkey had been refusing to approve Sweden’s accession.
But on the eve of the summit, after hours of meetings with the leaders of both nations, Stoltenberg announced a breakthrough.
“Sweden will become a full member of the alliance,” Stoltenberg announced at a late-night news conference.
Biden had also spoken to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the better part of an hour on Sunday as he flew to Europe. The pair are also scheduled to meet on Tuesday. Biden hosted Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson several days before at the White House.
Hungary must also approve Sweden’s membership request, but with Turkey no longer opposed, Stoltenberg said he expects the process to move swiftly.
