The Yankees have an important stretch of games ahead of them with the All-Star break in the rearview mirror, and Aaron Judge’s return looks murkier by the day.
The Yanks host the Pirates in the Bronx Tuesday with Will Warren on the mound, and the Buccos will have Bubba Chandler starting in the second game of the three-game series.
Oddsmakers have the Yankees as moneyline favorites with a high Over/Under of 9 runs at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Pirates prediction, best bet
Warren hasn’t pitched in nine days and should be well rested for this matchup after a rough start to his summer. He also hasn’t recorded a win since May 31. Through his first 12 starts, he had a 3.22 ERA, but over his past seven, his ERA is 5.56.
The Pirates have been one of the best-hitting teams in the league this season, leading the majors in hits, batting average and RBI as a group. Their expected numbers are very good too, ranking sixth in xwOBA.
Nick Gonzalez, who has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season, is batting .311 for the season and could be a potential thorn in Warren’s side in this game. Gonzalez hits breaking balls well, and that has been a problem for Warren, who allows a .350 batting average and .600 slugging on those pitches.
Warren’s betting trends since the beginning of June all point in the same direction. He has allowed at least five hits in five of his seven starts — he gave up seven twice and eight twice over that stretch. This has come at the same time that the Yankees offense has become anemic.
Warren is by no means a terrible pitcher, but the margins are so thin for the Yankees that he has to be perfect for the Bombers to squeak by with the limited amount of runs they’ve been scoring.
I don’t expect him to have a strong enough outing to quiet the Pirates’ bats on Tuesday. I’ll be fading Warren by taking the Over on his hits, which have been priced as high as 5.5 since June. I’ll also grab the Pirates as dogs on the moneyline.
The Pick: Will Warren Over 4.5 hits allowed (-165, bet365) | Pirates ML (+130, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
