While at first glance the buddy show on display this week in China – where President Xi Jinping welcomed other non-Western world leaders to his latest Shanghai Co-operation Organisation summit – appears threatening to our global interests, in reality this was less the emergence of an alternate new world order, and more just the latest example of China’s ambitions unleashed. Those are concerning in themselves, given that China clearly strategically means us ill, but the irony is that those who Xi surrounded himself with this week have as much to lose as the West from Chinese expansionism.
Of course, it is not good news that China, Russia and India are attempting to deepen their economic relationships. For Russia, this triumvirate offers a chance to escape the opprobrium of the Ukraine War and Western sanctions. For India, it suggests some respite from US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, which has hit it particularly hard. Fairly recently, it was commonplace to consider that India would inevitably turn towards the West in the long-running external identity battle that has accompanied the idea of India’s traditional neutrality.
No more, it would seem. But China is the big winner from any summit it hosts. President Xi likes to speak of “win-wins” for those making deals with him, implying that both sides benefit.
They may do initially, but China’s economic progress has been littered with the corpses of those who have deepened ties, only to recoil in horror later once it becomes apparent that the terms of trade are always in China’s favour.
Vladimir Putin may have enjoyed his moment out of isolation, but he will know deep down that China is the senior partner in the relationship now given the obvious decline in Russian power.
And India is already dependent on Chinese manufacturing despite its growing economic power. It will be difficult for India to challenge China for economic dominance with one hand tied behind its back by deals like this.
Both countries will also have been discomforted by the extraordinary military parade in Beijing held later in the week, where Xi showcased the might of the Chinese Army.
This might well be deployed against Taiwan sooner than later, but Russia and India have had territorial disputes with China in the recent past, so will be well aware that China could prove a fair-weather friend.
An anti-Western alliance may be Xi’s dream, but China’s ambitions may yet convince others that it is better not to do long-term deals with a devil.