Xavier Becerra’s odds of winning California governor race surge

Xavier Becerra surged to a commanding lead on Polymarket Wednesday as bettors increasingly treated the former Biden health secretary as the heavy favorite to become California’s next governor.

Becerra was listed with a 79.3% chance of winning the governor’s race by early Wednesday afternoon, up 29% from Tuesday, according to Polymarket.

Billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer was a distant second at 13.1%, while Republican Steve Hilton — who led in the first wave of returns Tuesday night — had fallen to just 5.8%.

The sharp shift came as traders digested primary night results that left Becerra and Hilton on track for a November showdown in deep-blue California.

The market had seen more than $33 million in trading volume as of Wednesday afternoon, with Steyer accounting for nearly $4 million of that total and Hilton more than $1.8 million.

Becerra’s rise markets a stunning turnaround for the Democrat, who began the campaign so far behind that he was left off the debate stage before eventually breaking through — due in part to Eric Swalwell’s stunning implosion in midst of sexual assault allegations against the former congressman.

Hilton, meanwhile, appeared poised to give Republicans a place in the general election — but Polymarket traders were signaling deep skepticism that he could pull off a November upset.

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