Since being set up in 1949 as a unified deterrent to the horrors seen during World War 2, NATO is now at its closest point to the type of war it was formed to prevent, experts have warned, voicing fears over continued Russian aggression. Following the recent succession of major incursions into Romanian, Estonian and Polish territory, western leaders have issued defiant statements, warning the Kremlin that NATO is ready to act should Vladimir Putin continue his current tactics.
Speaking after three armed Russian MiG-31 fighter jets breached Estonian airspace on Friday (September 19), NATO chief Mark Rutte said there was “no need” to shoot down the Russian planes on this occasion. However, he added that that does not mean “we would not shoot down an aircraft immediately. We will first assess the situation”. “If necessary, we will do what is required”, he added. The UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper echoed these words, warning that the UK is “ready to act” against Russian aggression, while US President Donald Trump recommended shooting Russian aircraft out of the sky.
According to Professor Anthony Glees, a renowned European defence and security expert, Russia is making a major miscalculation in thinking NATO would not respond with force if it continues on its current path.
“You ask ‘is NATO at the closest point to global conflict since its inception?’ and I believe the answer is ‘yes, yes, and yes again’, Prof Glees told The Mirror. “We in NATO have never been closer to real and major war with odious Russia than right now.
Professor Glees believes NATO should have shot down the three Russian fighter interceptors after Friday’s incursions, “no ‘if’s’, no ‘buts'”. “Violation of NATO airspace by offensive jets should always be result in Putin’s planes being taken down immediately”, he added.
“Any humming or hahing will be taken by Putin as a clear indication he can claim control over the skies of eastern Europe at will, a vital first step for him in any military assault on the Baltic Republics, on Poland and on Romania.”
Ed Andrews, Senior Research Fellow for European Security and NATO expert at the Royal United Services Institute, agreed that NATO has never been closer to armed warfare with the Kremlin. However, he argued the alliance could have stopped Mr Putin in his tracks far earlier.
“I’m one of those people who thinks that we should have gone harder and faster earlier. And when I mean earlier, I mean in 2014, not in 2022,” he said. Mr Andrews, who was stationed at NATO headquarters in 2014, said NATO should have acted then and stopped Putin’s emboldening into the dictator he is today.
“Yeah, we should have done more. But I think the position we’re in at the moment, is that we’re not punishing Putin. These incursions happen and we strengthen the eastern flank – My argument would be, if your direction is to defend every inch of NATO territory surely the eastern flank should be as hard as possible. The fact you’re still incrementally improving it in response shows that you haven’t gone hard and fast enough originally.
“So I think there is a lot more to do, but again, like I say, more planes, more money, more surveillance for the eastern flank – it’s all good, it all helps, but it doesn’t punish Putin.
“And that’s where I think the downside is, we don’t really have any ideas of really how to punish Putin,” he added.