Vladimir Putin is reportedly building up a “strategic reserve” of soldiers, which could be part of wider preperations for a future conflict with NATO. The purpoted plan also indicates that the Kremlin is not interested in ending its war against Ukraine, and remains committed to achieving its war goals on the battlefield, experts suggest.
Russia’s President has “repeatedly put forward a theory of victory that assumes that his forces will be able to make slow, creeping advances on the battlefield indefinitely, enabling them to win a war of attrition against Ukraine”, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its daily report of the conflict.
The apparent decision to create a reserve of troops and not deploy all new recruits to the frontline indicates that Putin and his military command are “content with the current rate of advance, even though Russian forces continue to only advance at a foot pace”, it added.
The pool of men also suggests that Russia “plans to escalate offensive operations in Ukraine in the near-to-medium term rather than end the war”, and the country could be building out its strategic reserve as part of wider preparations for a “possible Russia-NATO conflict”.
This is particularly the case as Russia “intensifies” its youth military-patriotic programs that aim to recruit youth in the years to come.
In June, it was reported that the number of Russian casualties as a result of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine had hit one million.
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) wrote at the time that its data suggested that Russian military forces have “failed to effectively advance along multiple axes in Ukraine, seized limited territory, lost substantial quantities of equipment relative to Ukraine, and suffered remarkably high rates of fatalities and casualties since January 2024”.
On Friday, Estonia’s foreign ministry said three Russian jets entered its air space without permission and remained there for 12 minutes, the third violation of NATO air space in a little more than a week.
The incursion came 10 days after Russian drones entered Polish air space and six days after another Russian drone was intercepted flying over Romania.
Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, warned that his country was the closest to “open conflict” it had been since the Second World War, and the UK announced it would provide Warsaw with extra air cover in the form of RAF jets.
