Ghana caught everybody by surprise by holding England to a nil-nil draw on Tuesday. Not only did the result essentially clinch a spot in the Round of 32 for Ghana, but it also sent a message that the Black Stars could be a chore to deal with in the business end of the World Cup.
After watching England throw four by Croatia, everybody assumed it would be more of the same against Ghana, but Carlos Queiroz did what he does best and organized his side to be a real beast without the ball.
The Black Stars were one of four teams (Spain, Mexico, and Argentina) to not concede a single goal in their first two matches.
It’s Croatia’s turn to try to solve Ghana on Saturday.
World Cup: Croatia vs. Ghana odds, predictions
As solid as Ghana has been defensively, the attack has been tepid. They needed every bit of 95 minutes to find the back of the net against Panama, and then came away empty-handed against England.
Ghana’s 1.4 expected goals rank 35th in the 48-team field after two matches.
Queiroz puts an emphasis on slowing down the opponent ahead of outscoring them, but at some point, Ghana will need to show some attacking teeth. That’s a problem for another day, though.
This match will be all about defense.
Croatia’s organization and discipline were its identity for the last decade, but things came unglued for Vatreni in this tournament. England ran roughshod over the Croatian backline, and Panama really started to put some pressure on after they fell behind in the second half.
They need to clean things up, as they’ll need to avoid defeat against Ghana to punch their ticket to the Round of 32.
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A slow-moving match would suit both of these teams just fine, and I wouldn’t expect either to come out of its shell until a goal is scored.
The under 2.5 goals is juiced to -154, which tells us that the bookies are expecting a low-event match, which makes this a prime opportunity to play the draw.
The Play: Draw (+220, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
