Nobody saw this one coming.
Italy will take on Venezuela in Monday’s World Baseball Classic semifinal, with the winner advancing to Tuesday’s final against TK at loanDepot Park in Miami.
Venezuela is a -200 favorite for this contest, but the Italians have proven to be quite comfortable playing the underdog role in this tournament.
Can Team Italy take this Cinderella run all the way to the final?
Italy vs. Venezuela odds, prediction
Italy turned this tournament on its head with a monumental upset of Team USA, but it’s been equally impressive to see how the Azzurri followed up that result.
They bombarded Mexico in a do-or-die game at the end of the group stage, and then they staved off a rally against Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals. Italy has won three straight games as an underdog, scoring 25 runs in the process.
Venezuela is better than Mexico and Puerto Rico, but there’s no reason for the Italians to feel like they can’t hang with La Vinotinto, especially since they’ve teed off on some terrific pitchers recently.
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The Italians had no issue with Nolan McLean of Team USA; they chased Javier Assad early against Mexico, and then did the same to Puerto Rico’s Seth Lugo. There is some serious pop in this lineup, and they’re all brimming with confidence.
Keider Montero, the probable starter for Venezuela, will have his hands full on Monday.
Michael Lorenzen, last seen leading Italy to an upset of Team USA, will get the nod for the Italians, and he’ll need to bring his A-game again, as the bullpen has been the Azzurri’s lone weak spot in this tournament so far.
Venezuela’s lineup, which just pummeled Japanese pitching in the quarterfinals, should be able to do some damage against Lorenzen and whoever backs him up.
The Venezuelans can score in a hurry, but they’ve also got plenty of table-setters like Luis Arraez, Ezequiel Tovar, and Wilyer Abreu who know it’s their job to get on ahead of Ronald Acuna, Eugenio Suarez, or Maikel Garcia.
Both of these lineups are in prime position to do some damage on Monday, so a bet on the Over 9.5 runs looks like a savvy play.
The Play: Over 9.5 (-124, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
