The 2026 World Baseball Classic gets underway with a showdown between Australia and Chinese Taipei at the Tokyo Dome on Wednesday night (10 p.m. ET).
We wouldn’t call this a marquee matchup, but this is a pivotal game in Pool C, which is headlined by Japan.
While it would be a shock if the Japanese didn’t top the group, it should be a pretty competitive race for second place, which comes with a bid into the quarterfinals, between South Korea (+110 to advance), Chinese Taipei (+175), and Australia (+275).
A win would put either Chinese Taipei or Australia in a good spot out of the gates.
World Baseball Classic: Chinese Taipei vs. Australia prediction
The Aussies were one of the stories of the last WBC, springing an upset against South Korea to nab a spot in the quarterfinals, where they lost a close tilt against Cuba.
A tournament that took place three years ago shouldn’t have too much bearing on this one, but it is worth noting because Australia’s 2026 roster features 17 players from 2023. That’s some serious experience for Southern Thunder to lean on.
And while the experience is great to have, this tournament will also be the coming-out party for Travis Bazzana.
Drafted first overall in 2024 by the Cleveland Guardians, the Aussies will go as far as Bazzana takes them.
He’ll be surrounded by a few former Major Leaguers, but the majority of this roster is made up of Australian League veterans.
In the big picture, a gritty, experienced team with one potential game-wrecker won’t be enough to hang with the likes of Japan, Team USA, and the other heavyweights, but it does raise the floor in a single game, making the Aussies an intriguing team to back as an underdog, especially against other also-rans.
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Chinese Taipei will bring with it a frenetic, energetic style, but they lack pop and will be relying on Hao-Yu Lee, a former Tigers prospect, to provide some power. He had decent power numbers in Triple-A last season, but isn’t exactly going to strike fear into the opposition.
There are a lot of unknowns in this game and this tournament. That makes handicapping this game, the opener for the competition, quite an endeavor. But the one thing that I keep coming back to here is that these rosters don’t project to be all that different in terms of overall talent.
Chinese Taipei may be the more talented group overall, but the experience of Australia and the presence of Bazzana give Southern Thunder a platform to spring an upset.
In a game with this many variables, it makes sense to side with the underdog.
The Play: Australia moneyline (+190, bet365 Sportsbook)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
